TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.9b

24H VOL:

$119,829,147

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,761,303

340,135

Markets across

33,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,344

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
G
Commodities
p

GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?

Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$8,403
Volume 24h:
$628
49%
Liquidity:
$656
27%
Open interest:
$1,573N/A

↓ $1.50

 - Polymarket

↓ $1.50 - Polymarket

75.7%

-1.5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

No volume data

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $1.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
p

Trade on Polymarket

At 75.7¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% | APY: 124% Low liquidity 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H100 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ornn H100 Index displays a finalized price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price for any day between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The daily values shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. This market will resolve as soon as the listed price is hit, or once the value for the specified end date is finalized. If not all relevant data has been finalized by the end of the 14th calendar date afterward (ET), this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to previously published data points, before all relevant data points have been finalized, will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after all relevant data points have been finalized will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and live market sentiment rather than static published reports. Traders in this market are directly exposed to the outcome, creating pressure to price in emerging supply-chain shifts, competition from alternative chips, and shifts in AI workload demand. While equity analysts may publish quarterly GPU rental price targets based on historical trends, this market continuously reprices as new data emerges, sometimes leading or lagging consensus depending on information asymmetries and trader conviction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—representing a specific H100 rental price range or threshold—carries its own odds, and traders profit by correctly predicting which range will be verified at resolution. The market's price discovery mechanism rewards early information and punishes late-arriving consensus, encouraging participants to incorporate forward-looking signals about GPU supply, demand, and competitive dynamics into their positions.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on identifying the prevailing H100 rental price at that time, measured against the specific thresholds embedded in the market's outcome categories. Traders should monitor industry pricing indices, cloud provider rate cards, and GPU availability reports in the months leading up to resolution to refine their forecasts.

Major catalysts include new GPU chip releases from Nvidia or competitors that shift rental demand, changes in cloud provider pricing strategies, and macroeconomic shifts affecting AI infrastructure spending. Supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical trade restrictions, or breakthroughs in alternative accelerators could also reshape expectations. Additionally, announcements from hyperscalers about in-house chip development or capacity expansions may compress rental rates, while unexpected AI adoption surges could sustain or elevate prices. Traders should track earnings calls, industry conferences, and semiconductor supply reports for early signals.