TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Kai Havertz: 1+
all
3 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This event group tracks individual player performance metrics for the Germany vs. Paraguay FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 29, 2026. The leading outcome, Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target, commands 99.8% consensus probability across Kalshi, Predict, Limitless, and Polymarket, as aggregated from FIFA's official records. Watch for the match kickoff on June 29, 2026, when these player prop predictions will be tested against actual in-game performance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Time window divergence (extra time inclusion) and source publication timeline mismatch across platforms. Kalshi/Limitless include full match including extra time; Predict/Polymarket restrict to 90+stoppage only. Official statistics publication window differs: 24 hours (Predict/Polymarket) vs 2 hours (Kalshi/Limitless/Polymarket for shots).Hero tip: If betting on player props, prioritize Predict or Polymarket if you want certainty that extra time goals do not count. Use Kalshi if you believe extra time is likely and want full-match exposure. Always verify the match will not go to extra time before settlement, or hedge across platforms. Check official FIFA/governing body statistics within 2-24 hours post-match to avoid consensus-based fallback resolution.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Includes entire game: regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Goals, assists, and all player metrics count for full match duration. Key Quote: 'during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)'
- Predict: Restricts to 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Official statistics required within 24 hours; consensus reporting used if delayed. Key Quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
- Polymarket: Restricts to 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Official statistics required within 24 hours; consensus reporting used if delayed. Key Quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
- Limitless: Includes full match including extra time if played. Resolution based on FBRef.com match report. If data unavailable 72 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus used. Key Quote: 'including extra time if played'
Polymarket
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Kalshi
Each player market resolves to Yes if that player records the specified minimum number of goals (1+, 2+, or 3+) during the entire Germany vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup match on June 29, 2026, including regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If a player is listed as active but does not enter the game, the market settles to the last fair market price before game start. Once a player enters the game, settlement is determined by the player's actual goal count during play.
Predict
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Jamal Musiala records a strictly greater total of shots on target than Florian Wirtz in the Germany vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match scheduled for June 29, 2026, 20:30 UTC (including extra time if played), as reported in the FBRef.com match report for this specific game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Shots on target (SoT) will be determined using the "SoT" column for Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz in the Germany Player Stats section. For the purposes of this market, if either Jamal Musiala or Florian Wirtz is not listed in the Germany Player Stats section of the FBRef.com match report for this specific game, that player's shots on target value will be considered as 0. If the match is not played and completed with an official result by August 29, 2026, 12:00 UTC, the market will resolve to "NO." If the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the match is completed, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets operate on continuous trader-set pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines, often reflecting sharper, more dynamic adjustments as new information emerges. While sportsbooks employ professional oddsmakers and manage liability through margin, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from thousands of participants. This market may show tighter or wider spreads than traditional sportsbooks depending on liquidity and trader conviction, offering an alternative lens on player performance probabilities.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can produce price gaps on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi may also enforce slightly different contract specifications or settlement windows. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but temporary misalignments persist due to capital constraints and platform-specific user bases. Monitoring both venues reveals whether one platform is pricing player props more conservatively or optimistically.
Team news, injury reports, and lineup announcements typically shift player prop odds as availability changes. Pre-match betting patterns and sharp money inflows can signal informed positioning. During the match itself, early goals, red cards, or substitutions will trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust expectations for remaining playing time and scoring opportunities. Historical head-to-head matchups and recent form also influence positioning ahead of kickoff.