TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.5b

24H VOL:

$70,467,699

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,361,103,189

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,139,122,135

330,715

Markets across

33,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,023

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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García out as Governor of Nuevo León by…?
Politics
kalshi
predict
polymarket

García out as Governor of Nuevo León by…?

Total volume:
$15,410,949
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$207,433
4%
Open interest:
$1,785,783
0%

December 31, 2026

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2026 - Polymarket

8%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

5%6%7%8%9%

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$2.3

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 8¢ buys you 1,250 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,250 | Net Profit: $1,150 Multiplier: 12.50x | ROI: 1,150% APY not meaningful 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Samuel García will cease to be the Governor of Nuevo León by December 31, 2026, with the current aggregated consensus probability of the leading outcome at 7.0%. The platforms aggregated are Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, and the resolution source is official information from Samuel García and the government of Nuevo León, along with credible reporting consensus. Watch for any official announcement of García’s resignation or removal before the market's end date on December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Complete subject mismatch: event group title references Samuel García (Nuevo León Governor) but two of three platforms contain markets about Keir Starmer (UK Prime Minister). This is a data integrity failure that makes the event group fundamentally unresolvable as currently structured.Hero tip: Reject this event group submission. Request corrected source data with proper platform-to-subject mapping. Kalshi and Predict markets belong to a separate 'Starmer out as PM by…?' group. Only Polymarket data is valid for García.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 12 markets about Keir Starmer leaving UK Prime Minister role by various 2026 dates. Logic: announcement or actual departure before specified date = Yes. WRONG SUBJECT for this group.
  • Predict: 4 markets about Keir Starmer ceasing to be UK Prime Minister (Feb 28, Mar 31, Jun 30, Dec 31, 2026). Logic: cessation of role or announcement before end date = Yes. WRONG SUBJECT for this group.
  • Polymarket: 2 markets about Samuel García ceasing to be Governor of Nuevo León by Jul 31, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026. Logic: cessation, detention, or effective removal from position = Yes. CORRECT SUBJECT but isolated on single platform.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Samuel García ceases to be the Governor of Nuevo León, Mexico, for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Samuel García’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Samuel García and the government of Nuevo León; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

An official announcement of departure must be made by Starmer, an authorized representative, or the governing body and reported by at least one Source Agency. The announcement cannot specify a departure date more than one year away. Actual departure encompasses resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do not constitute departure. Death does not satisfy the resolution criteria. Forced departures satisfy the criteria even without prior announcement. The market resolves Yes if either an official announcement or actual departure occurs before the specified deadline.

Predict

This market is for if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading volume for Keir Starmer's departure as Prime Minister across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks the consensus probability that Starmer will leave office before the market end date, drawing on combined liquidity of $15,410,949 across all linked contracts. The 24-hour volume snapshot of $987,073 reflects current trader interest. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard surfaces cross-market agreement and divergence, helping traders identify consensus forecasts and arbitrage opportunities on this high-stakes UK political event.

Prediction market odds reflect trader expectations weighted by real money at stake, often diverging from traditional polling. Polling typically measures voter sentiment on hypothetical scenarios or approval, while markets price the actual probability of a departure event. Markets incorporate insider knowledge, breaking news, and dynamic political developments faster than polls update. For Starmer's tenure, market odds may run higher or lower than polling-derived estimates depending on whether traders perceive imminent resignation, health concerns, or party pressure versus public approval ratings. Direct comparison requires noting that markets price binary outcomes while polls measure continuous approval.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether an official announcement of Keir Starmer's departure from the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom occurs before that deadline. The outcome is binary: either a departure is announced and confirmed through credible UK government sources, or it is not. Traders should monitor official statements from 10 Downing Street, parliamentary announcements, and major news outlets for the triggering event. Any ambiguity in timing or legitimacy of the announcement may be subject to platform-specific resolution procedures.

Key catalysts include major parliamentary defeats, internal Labour Party pressure or confidence votes, health crises, personal scandals, or dramatic polling collapses that trigger backbench rebellion. Economic shocks, international incidents, or coalition breakdowns could accelerate departure timelines. Conversely, electoral wins, policy victories, or stabilized polling would reduce departure odds. Media speculation about successor candidates, resignation rumors from close advisors, or statements from senior party figures carry outsized weight. Unexpected by-election results or local election performance could shift trader sentiment sharply. Watch for statements from the Prime Minister himself regarding his future intentions, as direct comments often trigger immediate market repricing.