TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Kylian Mbappe
- Kalshi
Kylian Mbappe - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Closed: Jul 9, 5:41 PM EST
Kalshi
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Mbappé to record more shots on target than Hakimi on July 9
Intro
This event group tracks individual player performance metrics from the France vs. Morocco FIFA World Cup match, with consensus aggregated across Kalshi, Limitless, Predict, and Polymarket. The leading market, Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves, shows 99.9% consensus probability according to FIFA.com as the resolution source. Watch for the match on July 9, 2026, as resolution divergence alerts indicate platform differences in time window scope that may affect final settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Time window scope divergence: Kalshi includes extra time and penalty shootouts, while Predict, Polymarket, and Limitless explicitly exclude them. Secondary divergence in resolution source hierarchy and fallback timing windows across platforms.Hero tip: If the match reaches extra time, Kalshi bettors will benefit from any additional goals/assists/shots in extra time, while Predict/Polymarket/Limitless bettors will not. Monitor match progression and adjust positions if the score remains tied late in regulation. Also note that Limitless uses FBRef.com as primary source (with 72-hour fallback), while other platforms use official governing body statistics (with 2-24 hour fallback)—this may create temporary settlement delays or discrepancies.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Includes entire game scope: regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. All player prop markets (goals, assists, shots, etc.) count statistics from the full match duration. Quote: 'during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Morocco professional FIFA World Cup soccer game'
- Predict: Restricts to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.' Primary source: official statistics within 24 hours; fallback: credible reporting consensus.
- Polymarket: Restricts to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.' Primary source: official governing body statistics within 24 hours; fallback: credible reporting consensus.
- Limitless: Restricts to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Unique source: FBRef.com match report (SoT column for player stats). Quote: 'including extra time if played' applies only to match completion deadline (Sept 9, 2026), not to stat collection window. Primary source: FBRef.com; fallback: credible reporting consensus if data unavailable for 72 hours.
Polymarket
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player records at least one goal or one assist during the entire France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup match on July 9, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Settlement is based on official match records. If a player is listed as active but does not enter the game, the market settles to the last fair market price before kickoff. Once a player enters the match, settlement is determined by their actual goals and assists recorded during play.
Predict
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Kylian Mbappé records a strictly greater total of shots on target than Achraf Hakimi in the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Quarter-final match scheduled for July 9, 2026, 20:00 UTC (including extra time if played), as reported in the FBRef.com match report for this specific game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Shots on target (SoT) will be determined using the "SoT" column for Kylian Mbappé in the France Player Stats section and Achraf Hakimi in the Morocco Player Stats section. For the purposes of this market, if either Kylian Mbappé or Achraf Hakimi is not listed in the respective team's Player Stats section of the FBRef.com match report for this specific game, that player's shots on target value will be considered as 0. If the match is not played and completed with an official result by September 9, 2026, 12:00 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO." If the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the match is completed, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader bases, contract designs, and liquidity pools. Kalshi may price player performance differently based on its user demographics and order flow, while Predict's structure and participant composition can shift the same outcome's odds. Regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and market depth also vary between venues. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect genuine disagreement about player contribution likelihood rather than mispricing.
Team news, injury announcements, and lineup confirmations typically drive sharp moves in player performance markets. If a key forward is ruled out or unexpectedly starts, odds for alternative scorers will shift rapidly. Recent form, head-to-head history, and tactical adjustments announced before kickoff also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions and referee assignments can subtly affect play style. Monitor official team statements and credible sports media for updates that reshape expectations around individual contributions.