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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
all
2 markets
Polymarket
79%
Kalshi
75%
consensus
77%
spread
75-79%
(4pp)
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 25
Vol.
$18.5k
·
Resolves Sep 15, 2026
Time left: 20d:18h:03m
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?
$
Trade on Polymarket
At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 78% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% High Projected APY: 7,282% 20 days to resolution
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 75¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% APY not meaningful 21 days to resolution
Description
This event group tracks the 2026 Emmy Awards for the Outstanding Variety Series category, focusing on whether specific shows will win the award. The markets cover major variety shows including 'The Daily Show,' 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!,' 'Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,' 'The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,' and 'Saturday Night Live.'
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same criteria: the official winner of the Outstanding Variety Series at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, with tie or cancellation resolved alphabetically.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including their websites and the live broadcastCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to Yes if the specified show wins the Outstanding Variety Series at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards
- If no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, or in case of a tie or cancellation, the market resolves in favor of the nominee which comes first alphabetically
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie or Cancellation: In case of a tie or cancellation, the market resolves in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
This event resolves to Yes if any listed show wins the Outstanding Variety Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The eligible contenders include The Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, and Saturday Night Live. A tie outcome also triggers a Yes resolution. The market focuses exclusively on this specific award category at the stated ceremony, with no other conditions or exceptions applying to the determination.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more casual bettors who react strongly to recent headlines, while the other could see steadier institutional participation. This can create a spread of 4.0 between their implied probabilities. Additionally, each venue sets its own fee structure and minimum trade sizes, further influencing how prices adjust. These dynamics mean that Polymarket and Kalshi may show distinct outlooks until sufficient trading volume bridges the gap.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official Emmy Awards announcement for the outstanding variety series category, which is typically broadcast live and later reported across major entertainment news outlets. Traders can track updates as the ceremony approaches, but the final settlement hinges on publicly confirmed results.
Key signals that could shift this market include late-breaking nominations, high-profile endorsements, controversy or scandal involving major contenders, and early betting trends from awards watch groups. As the ceremony nears, media previews, audience polls, and social media momentum can also sway trader sentiment. Any dramatic change in a show's public perception or last-minute performance updates may cause rapid price adjustments on both platforms before settlement.
