TOTAL VOLUME:
$93b
24H VOL:
$292,044,485
24H TRANSACTIONS:
886,278,487
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,110,369,954
782,610
Markets across
13,915
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Dakota Fanning – “All Her Fault” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Polymarket
At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 12% Low liquidity 66 days to resolutionTrade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 7¢ buys you 1,429 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $1,429 | Net Profit: $1,329 Multiplier: 14.29x | ROI: 1,329% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolutionDescription
This event group tracks the winner of the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie award at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, scheduled for September 14, 2026. Multiple prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing individual nominee outcomes, with resolution tied to the official Emmy Awards result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi permits explicit tie resolution as a YES outcome, while Polymarket applies an alphabetical tiebreaker fallback rather than recognizing ties as a distinct resolution state.Hero tip: If the Academy declares a tie for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, Kalshi's tie market (Rule 11) will resolve YES, but Polymarket will resolve the winner as whichever nominee comes first alphabetically. Cross-platform traders should hedge accordingly or clarify with platform support whether a tie is possible under 2026 Emmy rules.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Treats tie as a valid outcome with explicit YES resolution. Rule 11 states: 'If Tie has won Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.' This implies Kalshi recognizes and prices tie scenarios as a distinct market outcome.
- Polymarket: Applies alphabetical tiebreaker fallback. Resolution rules state: 'If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.' Ties do not resolve as a separate outcome; instead, the alphabetically-first nominee is declared the winner.
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie award at the 78th Emmy Awards recognizes exceptional supporting performances by actresses in limited series, anthology series, and television movies. Resolution occurs when any eligible actress wins this award, including the possibility of a tie if the Academy determines multiple actresses share the honor.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional analyst rankings because they reflect real money at stake rather than editorial opinion. Traders in this market are incentivized to price outcomes accurately; incorrect bets result in losses, creating a powerful signal. Analysts may rely on award-voting patterns, critical reception, or historical precedent, while markets incorporate all available information dynamically. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or superior to expert forecasts on entertainment outcomes, making them a valuable cross-check against conventional wisdom.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, leading to price variations even on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have different fee structures, user interfaces, or promotional incentives that influence participation. Market depth and order-book composition vary between venues, so large trades can move prices differently. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect the decentralized nature of prediction markets—no single price discovery mechanism exists across all platforms simultaneously.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Emmy Awards ceremony concludes and results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner in the Outstanding Supporting Actress category for limited or anthology series or movies will be determined by the Academy's voting process. Once the award is officially announced, the market will settle in favor of the winning nominee, and all positions will be finalized accordingly.
Major catalysts include Emmy nomination announcements, which narrow the field and shift odds dramatically. Critical acclaim, award-season momentum from Golden Globes or SAG Awards, and industry buzz can reshape trader conviction. Unexpected casting news, production delays, or changes to eligible projects may also influence prices. Social media trends, pundit predictions, and insider commentary often trigger repricing. As the ceremony approaches, late-breaking news about frontrunners or dark horses typically generates the largest volume spikes and volatility in this market.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.