TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
NONE
- Kalshi
NONE - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Closed: Jul 9, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Corbin Mims will be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 during Week 6. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a leading probability of 100.0% for elimination. Resolution will be determined by footage from Love Island USA Season 8 or credible reporting, with the betting period closing on July 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, marking the end of the Week 6 elimination window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi differ on resolution deadline (July 11 vs July 10, 2026) and Kalshi introduces a mutually exclusive NONE market outcome not present on Polymarket, creating potential for misaligned resolutions if eliminations occur on July 10 after Kalshi closes.Hero tip: Monitor the exact time zone and broadcast schedule for Love Island USA Week 6 eliminations. If an elimination airs on July 10 evening ET, Kalshi will have already closed while Polymarket remains open through July 11 11:59 PM ET. Confirm with Kalshi whether the NONE market is a separate binary or a resolution fallback. On Polymarket, multiple contestants can resolve YES simultaneously; on Kalshi, the NONE market enforces mutual exclusivity.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Thirteen individual binary markets, each asking if a named contestant is eliminated. Resolves YES if elimination occurs between market creation and July 11, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Traditional elimination only; non-traditional removal excluded. Source: episode footage or credible reporting consensus.
- Kalshi: Thirteen markets: twelve individual contestant markets plus one NONE market. Each resolves YES if the named contestant (or NONE if no contestant) is officially eliminated before July 10, 2026. The NONE market creates a mutually exclusive outcome structure where exactly one of the thirteen markets should resolve YES.
Polymarket
Love Island USA began airing on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 between market creation and July 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Removal from the show which differs from traditional elimination will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant episode of Love Island USA Season 8 or a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
A contestant is officially eliminated from Love Island USA S8 if they are voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraw, are disqualified, or are removed by producers before July 10, 2026. Official elimination must be declared through the program's broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. Multiple simultaneous eliminations all count toward resolution. A contestant's initial elimination counts even if they later return to the villa during the season. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as a runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. If the season is canceled without any eliminations being officially declared, the market resolves to No.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this elimination differently due to variations in their user bases, liquidity depth, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, so the marginal buyer or seller can shift prices independently. Liquidity imbalances—where one venue has far more trading activity than the other—can also widen spreads. Additionally, platform-specific fee structures and settlement rules may cause subtle pricing gaps. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities before resolution.
Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Contestant injuries, rule changes announced by producers, or unexpected drama during earlier episodes may alter elimination dynamics. Social media trends and fan voting patterns—if the show incorporates viewer input—can influence which islander faces the greatest risk. Insider leaks or official previews released by the network often trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, real-time viewer engagement metrics and betting volume spikes on competing platforms can signal shifting consensus, prompting traders to adjust positions ahead of the actual elimination ceremony.