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340,525
Markets across
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
58%
Who will win the 2026 Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series?
Rhea Seehorn
all
2 markets
Kalshi
83%
Polymarket
80%
consensus
81.5%
spread
80-83%
(3pp)
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 21
Aug 22
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Aug 24
Aug 25
Aug 26
Aug 28
Vol.
$4.2k
·
Resolves Sep 15, 2026
Time left: 18d:02h:24m
Will Rhea Seehorn win Drama Actress at the Emmy Awards?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 83¢ buys you 120 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $120 | Net Profit: $20 Multiplier: 1.20x | ROI: 20% High Projected APY: 3,484% 18 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 80% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% APY not meaningful 17 days to resolution
Description
This event group tracks which actress will win the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series award at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards scheduled for September 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing individual nominee outcomes, with resolution tied to the official Emmy Awards ceremony results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket handle tie scenarios and nominee scope differently. Kalshi treats a tie as a distinct Yes outcome, while Polymarket applies alphabetical ordering to resolve ties deterministically.Hero tip: Monitor whether Emmy rules permit ties in this category. If ties are impossible, Kalshi's tie option is dead weight. If ties are possible, Polymarket's alphabetical fallback (Carrie Coon first) creates a hidden option that may be underpriced relative to Kalshi's explicit tie pricing.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Offers 11 resolution paths including 10 named actresses plus a generic Tie outcome. All resolve to Yes. No tie-breaking protocol specified. Quote: If Tie has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Polymarket: Covers 5 specific nominees (Carrie Coon, Chase Infiniti, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn, Zendaya) with alphabetical tie-breaking fallback. Tie or no-winner scenarios resolve to first alphabetical nominee by October 31, 2026 deadline. Quote: If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever actress wins the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series award at the 78th Emmy Awards, or if a tie is declared in that category.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here often diverge from traditional analyst rankings because they aggregate real-money bets rather than subjective opinion. Traders have direct financial incentive to price outcomes accurately, which can surface early signals that mainstream media or award-show analysts miss. However, prediction markets can also reflect hype, betting patterns, or platform-specific trader demographics. Comparing this market's odds to published critic predictions and industry forecasts helps you spot where consensus breaks down and identify potential value or risk.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct user bases with different risk tolerances and information sets, which can push odds apart even when both are tracking the same underlying event. Regulatory differences and contract design also play a role. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which platform's pricing may be more reliable based on volume and trader activity.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, following the Emmy Awards ceremony. The outcome is determined by the official winner announced for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, verified against credible public sources covering the event. Once the award is publicly confirmed, the market settles based on which contender receives the honor. Traders holding positions on the eventual winner are paid out according to their odds at the time of resolution.
Major catalysts include Emmy nomination announcements, which narrow the field and shift odds dramatically. Award-season momentum—wins at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, or BAFTA—often flows into Emmy predictions. Critical acclaim, viewership trends, and industry buzz around standout performances can reshape trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about a contender's career or public perception may also trigger repricing. Additionally, any changes to Emmy voting rules or eligibility could affect the competitive landscape and move prices across both platforms.
