TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$264,423,826
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,171,275,957
831,219
Markets across
15,133
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
973
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Time left: 01d:05h:39m
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This event divides Dogecoin's price on July 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Traders select which range they believe the price will fall within, with the price determined by a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index.
Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for whichever range contains the final average price. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than other cryptocurrency price data sources. At the final moment before expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official settlement value.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty. While spot exchanges show today's Dogecoin price, this market prices in volatility, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts over the next eighteen months. Traders who expect DOGE to move into a particular range buy those outcome shares, pushing odds higher. Comparing these odds to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in tail risks or underestimating momentum.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform matches buyers and sellers in real time, with the midpoint between the highest bid and lowest ask representing the fair-value odds. As new information arrives—whether from Dogecoin development updates, exchange listings, or macro sentiment shifts—traders adjust their orders, causing prices to move. This mechanism ensures that odds stay anchored to current market expectations throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, when the specified time window closes and Dogecoin's price can be verified. The outcome is determined by which price range bracket DOGE falls into at that exact moment, confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once pricing data is finalized, ensuring a transparent and timely settlement.
Major catalysts include Dogecoin network upgrades, shifts in Elon Musk's public statements, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. Regulatory announcements—whether supportive or restrictive—can trigger sharp repricing. Bitcoin and Ethereum movements often drag altcoins along, so macro crypto sentiment is crucial. Exchange listings, payment integrations, and community-driven initiatives can boost demand. Conversely, security incidents, failed partnerships, or a sustained bear market could pressure prices downward. Traders monitor social media, development activity, and macroeconomic indicators to anticipate these moves and adjust positions accordingly.
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