TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$205,769,171

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,078,492,000

827,238

Markets across

14,795

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

884

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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opinion

Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$4,443,761
Volume 24h:
$6
75%
Liquidity:
$49,677
0.72%
Open interest:
$15,949N/A
PredictionHero
$2B 40%
opinion
$2B 12%
p
$3B 25%
opinion
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026204060

$2B

40%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 29.9¢ buys you 334 shares | Odds: 40% Total Payout: $334 | Net Profit: $234 Multiplier: 3.34x | ROI: 234% High Projected APY: 1,216% 168 days to resolution
p

Trade on Polymarket

At 13¢ buys you 769 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $769 | Net Profit: $669 Multiplier: 7.69x | ROI: 669% High Projected APY: 8,097% Low liquidity 169 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether ConsenSys will complete an initial public offering and, if so, what its closing market capitalization will be on the first trading day. Across Predict, Polymarket, and Opinion, the consensus probability for a closing market cap above $2B stands at 39.6%, with a $3B threshold at 24.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official closing price on ConsenSys's first trading day, based on the primary exchange's official listing page. Watch for any IPO announcement or filing activity, as the market resolves to "No" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group contains two distinct resolution architectures: binary IPO timing (predict platform) and conditional market cap thresholds (polymarket platform). These are logically dependent but operationally separate. The opinion platform lacks explicit resolution criteria and appears to be sentiment-only.Hero tip: Do not conflate predict and polymarket markets. Predict markets answer 'Will IPO happen by X date?' Polymarket markets answer 'If IPO happens by Dec 31 2026, will closing market cap exceed $Y?' A trader bullish on IPO timing should target predict markets; a trader with a specific valuation thesis should target polymarket. Opinion markets should be ignored for settlement purposes unless explicitly tied to a resolution source.

Critical divergence points:

  • predict: Binary IPO occurrence by deadline. Three separate markets with deadlines of June 30, September 30, and December 31, 2026. Resolution: 'Yes' if IPO completes by ET deadline per official company announcements and credible news sources. Resolves 'No' if acquired by public company or deadline passes without IPO. Source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • polymarket: Conditional market cap thresholds on first trading day. Three markets ($1B, $2B, $3B). Resolution: 'Yes' if closing market cap exceeds threshold on first trading day; 'No' if IPO does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET OR if closing market cap is at or below threshold. Source: primary exchange official listing page or reliable alternative. Handles trading interruptions by using abbreviated session close or next trading day close.
  • opinion: Sentiment/opinion markets with three threshold levels ($1B, $2B, $3B). No explicit resolution criteria, source, or methodology provided. Appears to be a polling or prediction proxy without formal settlement rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConsenSys (the parent company of MetaMask) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If ConsenSys is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Frequently asked questions

The Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___? dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether Consensys will achieve a closing market capitalization above a specified threshold upon its initial public offering. The dashboard displays consensus probability, total group volume of $4,443,761, and 24-hour activity of $7. By monitoring multiple prediction platforms simultaneously, traders gain a cross-market view of how the crypto community prices the likelihood of Consensys reaching that valuation milestone, helping identify market sentiment and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Prediction market odds reflect probabilistic expectations distinct from spot price movements. While crypto spot prices respond to immediate supply and demand, prediction markets for Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ? embed longer-term structural views about the company's valuation at IPO. Markets like Polymarket price in regulatory risk, market conditions, and timing uncertainty. Spot prices of Consensys-related tokens or comparable crypto firms may diverge from IPO market cap odds because they reflect current trading dynamics rather than forward expectations about post-IPO valuation and market reception.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Consensys completes its initial public offering and whether the closing market capitalization on the first day of trading meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The outcome is determined by official IPO documentation, stock exchange filings, and verified closing price data. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution date, allowing participants to adjust positions as new information about Consensys's IPO plans, regulatory status, and market conditions emerges.

Key catalysts include Consensys regulatory filings, SEC feedback on the IPO registration statement, and crypto market sentiment shifts. Announcements regarding ConsenSys's financial performance, product roadmap, or strategic partnerships could influence perceived valuation. Broader crypto adoption trends, institutional interest in blockchain infrastructure, and macroeconomic conditions affecting tech IPOs all impact market cap expectations. Competitor IPO outcomes and comparable company valuations provide benchmarks. Additionally, changes to Consensys's business model, executive leadership, or competitive positioning could materially shift trader conviction about achieving the specified market cap threshold.

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