TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Consensys IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Consensys’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Predict measure different dimensions of the same underlying event. Polymarket is conditional on IPO occurrence and measures settlement value (market cap); Predict measures only IPO occurrence by deadline. The platforms are complementary but not interchangeable.Hero Tip:
Use Predict markets as leading indicators for IPO timing. Once an IPO is confirmed (Predict YES), Polymarket markets become active and depend on the closing market cap threshold. Be aware that a public company acquisition triggers NO on Predict but may not directly affect Polymarket resolution if the acquisition structure results in a published market cap figure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Measures closing market cap on first trading day, conditional on IPO occurrence by Dec 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no IPO by deadline. Handles trading interruptions by using next official closing price. Key Quote: 'Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.'
- Predict: Measures IPO occurrence by specific deadline (June 30, Sept 30, Dec 31, 2026). Resolves NO if ConsenSys is acquired by already-public company. Key Quote: 'If ConsenSys is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to No.'
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