TOTAL VOLUME:

$95.4b

24H VOL:

$108,431,621

24H TRANSACTIONS:

920,955,858

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,993,387,579

800,446

Markets across

13,603

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

774

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
Politics
kalshi
polymarket
p

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$4,866,536
Volume 24h:
$6,806
84%
Liquidity:
$63,422
80%
Open interest:
$516,263
0.11%
PredictionHero
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? 70%
polymarket
Yes 9%
kalshi
December 31 5%
predict
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026020406080

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

70%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 70% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% | APY: 114% Low liquidity 171 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Carles Puigdemont will return to Spain during 2026. Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 80.0% for a return, with 8.5% assigned to the alternative outcome. Resolution will be determined by physical confirmation of Puigdemont's presence within Spain's geographic boundaries. Watch for developments as the January 1, 2027 resolution deadline approaches, which marks the end of the betting window for this event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Subject mismatch: Event group title is 'Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?' but predict platform contains markets about Reza Pahlavi entering Iran. This is a data integrity failure, not a minor scope difference. The predict platform appears to describe an entirely different geopolitical event.Hero tip: This group contains corrupted or misattributed source data. The predict platform markets describe the wrong person and country. Do not trade until data provenance is verified and corrected by PredictionHero operations.

Critical divergence points:

  • predict: Four markets about Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by March 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. Defines visit as physical entry to terrestrial Iran territory. Resolution source: consensus of credible reporting. CRITICAL: This is about Iran/Pahlavi, not Spain/Puigdemont.
  • Polymarket: Market about Carles Puigdemont entering Spain by December 31, 2026. Defines entry as physical presence in Spanish terrestrial territory (including disputed territories administered by Spain, but excluding Gibraltar). Resolution source: consensus of credible reporting including photographs/video.
  • Kalshi: Market about Reza Pahlavi entering Iran before January 1, 2027. Defines resolution as physical travel and presence within Iran's geographic boundaries. No explicit resolution source stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.

Kalshi

If Reza Pahlavi has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds for whether Reza Pahlavi will visit Iran before year-end 2026 across Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction markets. It displays consensus pricing, trading volume of $4,866,536 across all platforms, and 24-hour activity of $6,302. You can compare implied probabilities side-by-side, track historical price movements, and monitor liquidity to gauge market confidence in this geopolitical outcome.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally from polls: they reflect real-money bets by traders with financial incentive to forecast accurately, rather than survey responses. Markets price in breaking news, diplomatic developments, and insider knowledge faster than traditional polls update. For a geopolitical event like Reza Pahlavi's potential Iran visit, markets often embed nuanced assessments of regime stability, exile negotiations, and international pressure that standard polling cannot capture.

Key catalysts include Iranian regime leadership changes, diplomatic breakthroughs between exiled opposition and Tehran, sanctions relief or escalation, and public statements from Reza Pahlavi or Iranian officials about reconciliation. Security developments, regional geopolitical shifts, and any formal negotiations over succession or amnesty could sharply shift market odds. Media reports of travel preparations or secret negotiations would likely trigger immediate repricing across Polymarket and Kalshi.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.