TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$107,266,600

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,258,675

332,550

Markets across

33,140

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,150

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
California Governor Election Winner
Politics
polymarket
predict

Who will win the California Governor election?

Oct 9, 2025, 7:29 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$44,687,207
Volume 24h:
$526,386
32%
Liquidity:
$12,866,789
2%
Open interest:
$831,655N/A

Xavier Becerra

all

2 markets

Polymarket

95.3%

Predict

94.1%

consensus

94.7%

+0.6%

spread

94.1-95.3%

(1.2pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$16k

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95.3¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 29% 68 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 94.1¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 38% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 46

Intro

This market tracks whether Xavier Becerra will win the 2026 California Governor Election, currently showing a consensus probability of 92.8% across Polymarket and Predict. The outcome will be resolved based on the winner declared by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, requiring consensus among these sources. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with a final resolution deadline of July 31, 2027 if no consensus is reached by then. Watch for official election results following the November 3 voting to determine the market's resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution sources (Associated Press, Fox News, NBC) and tiebreaker logic (official certification if sources disagree by July 31, 2027).Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (consensus required)

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve to the candidate all three sources (AP, Fox, NBC) simultaneously declare the winner
  • If no consensus by July 31, 2027, resolution falls to official certification
  • 'Other' is the fallback outcome for unresolved elections past the deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Source Disagreement: If AP, Fox, and NBC cannot agree on a winner by July 31, 2027, the official certification from California's election authority will determine the outcome
  • Election Cancellation: If the 2026 California gubernatorial election is officially canceled or postponed beyond July 31, 2027, all markets resolve to 'Other'
Timing: Resolution occurs no later than July 31, 2027 — either via source consensus or official certificationOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Predict

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the California Governor race aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the chances of each candidate winning. It displays current probabilities, total volume of $43,508,714, and 24-hour volume of $124,933 across venues. This gives a consensus view of market sentiment as the election approaches, highlighting any shifts in trader confidence. By tracking this market on platforms like Polymarket and Predict, users can see how prediction markets collectively forecast the outcome of the California Governor race.

On Polymarket and Predict, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform’s community may weigh information differently, leading to distinct probability assessments. For instance, Polymarket currently favors Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? at 95.3%, while Predict leans toward Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? at 94.0%. These discrepancies often narrow as the election date approaches, but until then, they reflect the unique dynamics and preferences of each platform’s traders.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of votes determines the winner, and markets close when official results are announced and widely accepted by authoritative news sources and government records.

Key events such as debate performance, endorsement shifts, economic updates, and scandal developments could sway this market. Polling trends leading up to Nov 3, 2026 often drive rapid price changes, especially when surveys show significant movement among undecided voters or key demographic groups. Any surprise developments—positive or negative—can reshape trader expectations and shift odds dramatically in the final stretch.