TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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California Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the California Governor election?

Total volume:
$105,563,495
Volume 24h:
$257,761
21%
Liquidity:
$10,649,243
35%
Open interest:
$23,984,207
0.67%

Xavier Becerra

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 6, 2027

Time left: 18d:19h:23m

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 96.5¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 98% 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Xavier Becerra

Trade
96%
Yes 96.5¢No 3.6¢
0.1¢
$2,907,618
$151,296
8%
27%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Xavier Becerra

Trade
96%
Yes 96.2¢No 3.9¢
0.1¢
$98,608
$2,181,151
0.05%
3%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Xavier Becerra

Trade
96%
Yes 95.9¢No 4.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,049,736
0.18%
3%
$2,139,317
2mo 3w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95.9%
Yes 96.2¢No 3.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
kalshi

Steve Hilton

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 95.8¢
0.2¢
N/A
$12,173,160
1%
12%
$6,648,348
2mo 3w 2d
active
polymarket

Steve Hilton

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 96.2¢
0.2¢
$157,417
$3,349,376
0.27%
3%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Steve Hilton

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 96.9¢
0.1¢
$33,932
$169,052
2%
11%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.1%
Yes 3.9¢No 96.3¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
predict

Katie Porter

Trade
4%
Yes 7.4¢No 99.8¢
7.2¢
$30,084
$1,581,512
2%
17%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Katie Porter

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$321,169
$1,770,178
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.8%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 7.2¢Max: 7.2¢
predict

Antonio Villaraigosa

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$30,656
$1,739,494
0%
16%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Antonio Villaraigosa

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$324,601
$1,617,994
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 0.5¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

Tom Steyer

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$152,163
$4,820,691
0.26%
0.27%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Tom Steyer

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$29,638
$44,007
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Rick Caruso

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
—
$29,673
$314,305
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Rick Caruso

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$390,086
$1,798,464
0%
0.06%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Alex Padilla

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$29,729
$1,521,423
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Alex Padilla

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$370,190
$1,996,717
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Elaine Culotti

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$29,787
$169,777
0.1%
0.19%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Elaine Culotti

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$376,838
$1,262,387
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Daniel Mercuri

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$30,342
$142,707
0%
0.27%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Daniel Mercuri

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$351,553
$1,396,566
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Chad Bianco

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$29,893
$153,821
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Chad Bianco

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$104,811
$1,947,431
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Butch Ware

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
$30,746
$301,709
0%
0%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
polymarket

Butch Ware

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$369,172
$1,313,400
0%
0%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Nicole Shanahan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$64,669
$67,866
0%
0.01%
N/A
2w 4d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 25 of 71

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 California Governor election, asking which candidate will win. Currently, the consensus probability that Xavier Becerra will win is 96.4%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, and will resolve based on official election results as reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with official certification as a fallback). Keep an eye on the election results following the January 6, 2027 date, which is when the markets will resolve if no results are confirmed by major news sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core resolution criteria: the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election, as determined by major news sources and official certification, with a 'Other' fallback.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with official certification as a fallback)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2026 California gubernatorial election.
  • The primary resolution source is a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
  • If the three sources do not agree, resolution will be based on official certification.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Clear Winner: If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and a runoff election is required, the market will resolve to the winner of the runoff election.
  • Delayed Certification: If official certification is delayed beyond July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Contested Results: In the event of a contested election with ongoing legal challenges, resolution will await a final, legally binding determination of the winner.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results, whichever comes first. If neither occurs by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for whichever candidate is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the 2026 election. Resolution is determined by the official election results confirming which individual candidate receives the most votes and wins the gubernatorial race.

Predict

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the California Governor election. It aggregates data from these prediction markets to provide a consensus view of who is most likely to win. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $105,563,495, with $234,831 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting the result of the California Governor election. The dashboard displays the implied probabilities and allows users to compare forecasts across different platforms.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, potentially revealing more about true beliefs and incorporating a wider range of information. Polling data can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, whereas prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, incentivizing accurate forecasts. However, it's important to note that both methods have limitations, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and sample populations. This market provides a real-time, financially-driven forecast.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing market designs and the types of traders participating on each platform can lead to variations in implied probabilities. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? at 96.2%, while Kalshi leans toward Who will win the governorship in California? at 95.8%. These differences demonstrate how diverse perspectives can shape forecasts within prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 6, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official outcome of the California Governor election, as reported by recognized election authorities. The platform will verify the results against these sources to ensure accuracy. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive payouts based on the odds at the time of their trades. This market provides a way to forecast and profit from the outcome of this significant political event.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, debates between candidates, and unexpected campaign events are all potential catalysts. News regarding the economy, key policy issues, or scandals involving candidates could also influence trading activity. Changes in the political landscape, such as high-profile campaign donations or the entry of new candidates, could also cause the market to react. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding how the probabilities for the California Governor election evolve.