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24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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320,351
Markets across
31,379
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,474
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
"Buddy" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Above 45
- Kalshi
Above 45 - Kalshi
100%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Aug 17
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Vol.
$201.0
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Time left: 06d:14h:52m
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for the movie "Buddy" as of August 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Multiple markets across different platforms are querying various score thresholds to determine resolution outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same data source (Rotten Tomatoes) and evaluation time (10:00 AM ET on August 31, 2026) with consistent threshold logic; the only difference is the threshold value required for a "Yes" outcome.Primary resolution logic: Rotten Tomatoes official websiteCore resolution logic:
- The official Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for "Buddy" will be checked at exactly 10:00 AM ET on August 31, 2026
- If the score meets or exceeds the market's specified threshold, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No"
- If the score is unavailable by September 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, all unresolved markets automatically resolve to "No"
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Data Unavailability: If Rotten Tomatoes fails to publish the score by the deadline, all markets resolve to "No" per Polymarket's explicit rule and implied fail-safe for Kalshi
- Score Rounding: Rotten Tomatoes typically displays scores in whole numbers; any fractional values (e.g., 59.5%) will be rounded to the nearest integer for threshold comparison
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Buddy is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Tomatometer score for Buddy on August 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, the Monday following the film's wide release. Each market corresponds to a specific score threshold, with resolution to Yes occurring only when the Tomatometer score strictly exceeds the stated threshold value. For example, a score of exactly 75 would resolve as No for the Above 75 market, but would resolve as Yes for all markets with thresholds below 75. The Tomatometer score must be strictly above (not equal to) the strike value to trigger a Yes resolution.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader sentiment, which currently differs from many analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer detailed score predictions based on reviews and historical data, market odds reflect aggregated bets and can shift rapidly with new information, often showing a 0.3 gap between the two approaches.
Price differences arise because each platform has its own user base and liquidity profile, which can shift probabilities based on trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, Polymarket currently favors Will "Buddy" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? at 98.7%, while Kalshi leans toward Buddy Rotten Tomatoes score? at 99.0%. These variations reflect how different communities interpret early reviews and buzz.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Rotten Tomatoes score will be taken from the official Tomatometer result published by the site, ending all trading activity and settling all positions accordingly.
Key signals include early review embargo releases, major critic scores, social media buzz, and any unexpected events like award nominations or controversies surrounding the film. Each new data point can shift trader sentiment, affecting odds on this market as participants adjust their bets based on evolving perceptions of the film's reception.
