TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on July 17?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin price on July 17?

Volume:
$717,679

$64,000 to 64,499.99

 - Kalshi

$64,000 to 64,499.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 17, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$64,000 to 64,499.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$177,458
N/A
N/A
$59,061
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$39,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 to 63,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$114,269
N/A
N/A
$29,152
Settled
No
kalshi

$64,500 to 64,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66,037
N/A
N/A
$29,774
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,000 to 63,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,548
N/A
N/A
$14,198
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,500 to 62,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,935
N/A
N/A
$10,041
Settled
No
polymarket

60,000-62,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,000 to 62,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,290
N/A
N/A
$15,173
Settled
No
polymarket

64,000-66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$65,000 to 65,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,776
N/A
N/A
$15,618
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000-68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,769
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$65,500 to 65,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,904
N/A
N/A
$7,954
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,000 to 66,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,918
N/A
N/A
$12,125
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,500 to 61,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,842
N/A
N/A
$5,426
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,500 to 66,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,706
N/A
N/A
$6,815
Settled
No
polymarket

58,000-60,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000-70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,151
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$51,999.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,924
N/A
N/A
$4,221
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,000 to 61,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,817
N/A
N/A
$3,950
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,000 to 67,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,192
N/A
N/A
$1,759
Settled
No
polymarket

56,000-58,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,500 to 59,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,337
N/A
N/A
$2,337
Settled
No
kalshi

$76,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,747
N/A
N/A
$1,747
Settled
No
polymarket

>74,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,500 to 67,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,520
N/A
N/A
$1,262
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks the price range Bitcoin will trade within on July 17, 2026, aggregating predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi. The consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 58.0%, based on data from both platforms. Resolution will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on July 17, 2026. Note that a divergence alert is active due to differences in how each platform settles this event, so watch the resolution source announcement on July 17, 2026, to understand which price index and observation time will ultimately determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent price indices and observation times create separate resolution paths. Polymarket resolves at 12:00 PM ET using Binance BTC/USDT, while Kalshi resolves at 5:00 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks BRTI. Price movements between noon and 5 PM, plus index methodology differences, will likely produce different bracket outcomes.Hero tip: Do not treat these as redundant markets. If you hold positions on both platforms, expect them to resolve to different price brackets. Use Polymarket for intraday noon positioning and Kalshi for late-afternoon exposure. Monitor the BRTI index separately from Binance spot prices to avoid surprise divergence at settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET on July 17. Price brackets span $56k–$74k+ in $2k increments. Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between two brackets, resolves to the higher bracket. Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with 1m candles selected.
  • Kalshi: Resolves using CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Price brackets span <$52k to >$76k in $500 increments. Each bracket is a separate Yes/No market. No tie-breaking rule specified; all brackets are mutually exclusive.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for whichever range contains the final average price. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' BRTI rather than other cryptocurrency price data sources. At the final moment before expiration, 60 individual BRTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official settlement value.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on where Bitcoin will trade on July 17, 2026. Each platform hosts its own order book and pricing mechanism, allowing participants to buy and sell shares tied to specific price outcomes. Together, these venues provide a cross-platform view of market sentiment, with combined volume reflecting the depth of interest in this particular event. Traders use these markets to hedge exposure, speculate on price direction, or benchmark their own expectations against the collective intelligence of prediction market participants worldwide.

Prediction market odds represent the probability that traders assign to a given outcome, derived from the prices at which they're willing to buy and sell shares. Unlike spot prices, which reflect the current market value of Bitcoin, these odds encode forward-looking expectations about where the asset will settle by a specific date. A high probability in this market suggests strong consensus that Bitcoin will reach or exceed a certain level; a low probability indicates skepticism. Comparing the two reveals whether the broader crypto market (reflected in spot trading) aligns with or diverges from the beliefs of prediction market participants, offering insight into tail-risk perceptions and longer-term conviction.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and macroeconomic shifts that typically drive risk-on or risk-off sentiment across crypto markets. Regulatory developments—such as new legislation or enforcement actions—can trigger sharp repricing. Bitcoin-specific news, including network upgrades, institutional adoption milestones, or large whale transactions, also influences trader positioning. Geopolitical events, banking sector stress, or shifts in traditional asset valuations may redirect capital flows into or out of Bitcoin. As the resolution date approaches, spot price momentum and options market activity often accelerate volatility, with traders locking in positions ahead of the final settlement.