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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
kalshi
polymarket
opinion
predict

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Total volume:
$92,145,696
Volume 24h:
$1,373,922
91%
Liquidity:
$9,350,221
0.66%
Open interest:
$31,286,270
3%

Democrats Sweep

all

4 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Kalshi

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Time left: 18d:06h:31m

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 63¢ buys you 159 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $159 | Net Profit: $59 Multiplier: 1.59x | ROI: 59% APY not meaningful 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrats Sweep

Trade
63%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
$3,138,325
$5,652,731
0.8%
9%
N/A
2w 4d 6h
active
predict

Democrats Sweep

Trade
62%
Yes 62.1¢No 38¢
0.1¢
$236,915
$1,264,145
0.19%
5%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
kalshi

D-House, D-Senate

Trade
62%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
N/A
$5,200,875
3%
9%
$3,089,509
3mo 2w 3d
active
opinion

Democrats Sweep

Trade
51%
Yes 51¢No 49¢
—
N/A
$1,864
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
62.2%
Yes 59.5¢No 41¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
opinion

R Senate, D House

Trade
47%
Yes 47¢No 53¢
—
N/A
$9,713,549
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
kalshi

D-House, R-Senate

Trade
31%
2%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$4,387,751
1%
14%
$2,367,425
3mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

R Senate, D House

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$2,614,433
$3,606,690
2%
12%
N/A
2w 4d 6h
active
predict

R Senate, D House

Trade
28%
Yes 27.5¢No 72.6¢
0.1¢
$114,925
$1,081,017
0.16%
4%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
38.4%
Yes 33.4¢No 67.2¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
opinion

Republicans Sweep

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 83¢
—
N/A
$6,213
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
kalshi

R-House, R-Senate

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$18,945,380
2%
15%
$15,747,095
3mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Republicans Sweep

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$2,214,297
$7,592,365
3%
12%
N/A
2w 4d 6h
active
predict

Republicans Sweep

Trade
8%
Yes 8.1¢No 92¢
0.1¢
$85,292
$1,289,042
0.03%
12%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.5%
Yes 11.5¢No 89¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
opinion

D Senate, R House

Trade
9%
Yes 99.8¢No 99.8¢
99.6¢
N/A
$8,120
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
predict

D Senate, R House

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
0.1¢
$113,512
$941,933
0%
13%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
polymarket

D Senate, R House

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
0.1¢
$536,113
$4,287,536
0.27%
33%
N/A
2w 4d 6h
active
kalshi

R-House, D-Senate

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,474,484
2%
19%
$10,082,242
3mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 25.7¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 25¢Max: 99.6¢
opinion

Other

Trade
8%
Yes 99.3¢No 99.3¢
98.6¢
N/A
$5,055,710
0%
0%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
predict

Other

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$102,499
$7,481,303
0.04%
1%
N/A
2w 3d 1h
active
polymarket

Other

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$193,909
$3,154,987
4%
25%
N/A
2w 4d 6h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 33.3¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 32.9¢Max: 98.6¢
Total markets: 19

Description

This event group forecasts the party control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution hinges on which party secures a majority of seats in each chamber, with tie-breaking rules involving the Vice President for the Senate and Speaker/Majority Leader selection for the House.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Discrepancies exist in the primary resolution sources and the level of granularity offered across platforms. Kalshi offers a simplified outcome, while Polymarket and Predict provide more detailed breakdowns.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket or Predict for more nuanced trading opportunities. Be aware of potential discrepancies in source reporting and tie-breaking procedures.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official election results, congressional records, and a consensus of credible reporting. Tie-breaks use the party affiliation of the first selected Speaker of the House or Majority Leader of the Senate.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if both House and Senate are controlled by Republicans. Offers a binary outcome, lacking granularity on individual chamber control.
  • Predict: Resolves based on Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC consensus. Tie-breaks use the party affiliation of the first selected Speaker of the House or Majority Leader of the Senate.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

This combination market requires all specified components to occur simultaneously for resolution to Yes. The four possible outcomes represent all combinations of partisan control: Democrats controlling both chambers, Republicans controlling both chambers, Democrats controlling the House with Republicans controlling the Senate, or Republicans controlling the House with Democrats controlling the Senate. If any single component becomes impossible or resolves to No, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset for House Control and Senate Control, ensuring consistency with standard chamber control determinations.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likely outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, specifically which party will control the House and Senate. It aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of predictions. Currently, combined volume across both venues exceeds $92,145,327, with $1,218,836 traded in the last 24 hours. The current market consensus suggests a strong likelihood of a Democratic sweep, though predictions are dynamic and subject to change as new information emerges. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of expectations surrounding the 2026 midterm elections.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current sentiment, prediction markets reflect what people are willing to *bet* on, which can incorporate more nuanced information and strategic thinking. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polls, especially closer to the event. However, it's important to remember that both are imperfect indicators and should be considered alongside other sources of information when assessing the likely outcome of the 2026 midterm elections.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing valuations. For example, Polymarket currently favors 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House at 62.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? at 62.0%. Differences in trading fees, margin requirements, or even simply the prevailing sentiment among users on each platform can contribute to these discrepancies. These variations are normal and reflect the independent price discovery process on each venue.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the 2026 midterm elections are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by which party controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate following the election. This market provides a way to forecast the balance of power after the 2026 midterm elections, offering insights into potential shifts in the political landscape. Traders are expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome through their buy and sell decisions.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, unexpected political scandals, key legislative developments, and significant changes in polling data are all potential catalysts. Candidate announcements, fundraising numbers, and performance in early primary elections could also influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events or unforeseen crises could also play a role, shifting voter priorities and impacting the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the 2026 midterm elections. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.