TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Democratic party
- Kalshi
Democratic party - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 4, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Democrats or Republicans will win the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. Currently, Kalshi gives a 74.0% probability to Democrats winning, while Republicans are at 27.0%. The market resolves based on whether a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, as determined by the official swearing-in process. Traders should watch the official certification of election results following the general election, expected around the resolution date of January 4, 2027, to see which party will hold the Senate seat.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027. Either a Republican or Democratic party representative will be elected to fill this seat.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Alaska Senate election. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a candidate will win, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of the election’s potential results.
This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities in Alaska. The candidate who receives the most votes in the general election will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of contracts on Kalshi. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout, while those who backed the losing candidate will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Jan 4, 2027. Major news events such as debates, candidate gaffes, or significant policy announcements could shift voter sentiment and, consequently, trading activity. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a substantial shift in support for a particular candidate, would also likely move the market. Unexpected endorsements or financial contributions could also influence traders' perceptions. Finally, any developments related to campaign finance or potential legal challenges could introduce volatility into this market.
