TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses individual candidate-specific markets with AP/Fox/NBC media call resolution, while Kalshi uses a party-affiliation binary structure. The platforms resolve on different criteria: Polymarket on who wins the election (individual), Kalshi on whether a Republican or Democrat is inaugurated (party).Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you must pick a specific candidate and wait for media confirmation; on Kalshi, you only need to predict party control. Polymarket offers granular candidate bets but requires three-source consensus; Kalshi is simpler but offers no candidate-level granularity. Arbitrage risk exists if media calls diverge from official certification.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES for exactly one named candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. Resolution requires consensus from AP, Fox News, and NBC; if all three have not called the race by July 31, 2027, resolution falls back to official state certification. The market structure includes 41 separate binary outcomes (named candidates plus 'another candidate' and generic placeholder candidates A-Z).
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if a Republican or Democrat is inaugurated as governor following the 2026 election. No media call requirement; resolution is based on official inauguration of a party-affiliated representative. The market structure is party-based, not candidate-specific.
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