TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$177,903,386

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,049,845,057

824,617

Markets across

14,701

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
predict

Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$3,047,588
Volume 24h:
$6,217
138%
Liquidity:
$381,405
10%
Open interest:
$62,034N/A
PredictionHero
$200M 58%
predict
$200M 58%
polymarket
$400M 37%
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 202620406080

Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?

58%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 59.9¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 58% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% | APY: 42% 534 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 58% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% | APY: 43% 534 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Description

This event group tracks whether Abstract's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds on the day following its public launch. The markets span FDV targets from $200M to $3B, with resolution determined by multiplying total token supply by the most liquid available price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on launch day plus one calendar day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition, launch criteria, and deadline, with no material divergences in resolution logic.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Abstract governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, combined with official total token supply figures.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV = Total Token Supply × Token Price (from most liquid source)
  • Resolution Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch
  • Launch Criteria: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable
  • Each threshold market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified amount, No otherwise
  • Fallback: If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple Price Sources: If multiple exchanges or venues have different prices at 4:00 PM ET, the most liquid source (highest trading volume) determines the price used in FDV calculation.
  • Token Supply Ambiguity: Total token supply must be clearly defined and verifiable from official Abstract sources; if disputed, resolution uses the supply figure from the primary launch announcement.
  • Launch Timing Ambiguity: If token becomes transferable at different times across venues, the earliest public transferability timestamp marks the launch date for purposes of calculating the 1-day-after resolution window.
  • Exchange Halts or Delisting: If the most liquid venue halts trading before 4:00 PM ET on resolution day, the next most liquid available source is used; if no liquid source exists, resolution is delayed until liquidity returns or market is cancelled.
  • No Launch Before Deadline: If Abstract does not launch a publicly transferable and tradable token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of FDV threshold.
Timing: Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the date Abstract's governance token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of Abstract's post-launch valuation relative to analyst forecasts and token price models. While spot price expectations focus on immediate trading levels after launch, prediction markets price the probability of hitting a specific FDV threshold. Analysts and on-chain data providers may estimate Abstract's fair value differently than the market odds suggest. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less bullish than consensus estimates. This divergence often signals either underpriced risk or overconfident market positioning ahead of the launch event.

On Polymarket, the Abstract FDV prediction is priced as a binary outcome contract where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no positions. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The current implied probability reflects the ratio of yes-share demand to total liquidity. Traders assess Abstract's token supply, initial market cap, and launch-day momentum to determine fair odds. Polymarket's AMM mechanism adjusts prices dynamically as volume flows in. The market has accumulated meaningful liquidity, allowing participants to enter or exit positions with reasonable slippage. Price discovery continues until the resolution date as new information about Abstract's launch timeline and tokenomics emerges.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the deadline for determining whether Abstract's FDV met the specified threshold one day after launch. Resolution hinges on verifiable data about Abstract's token supply, circulating market cap, and the exact timing of launch. The outcome is binary: either the FDV exceeded the threshold or it did not. Market participants should monitor official Abstract announcements and blockchain data sources as the launch date approaches. Clarity on token distribution and initial trading activity will be critical for accurate settlement.

Key catalysts include Abstract's official launch date announcement, tokenomics details, and pre-launch community sentiment. Regulatory clarity on token classification could shift bullish or bearish positioning. Competitor launches or broader crypto market rallies may increase demand for Abstract tokens. Developer ecosystem announcements and partnerships announced before launch typically boost valuation expectations. Token unlock schedules and early investor lock-up terms influence perceived scarcity. Market-wide volatility, Bitcoin price movements, and venture capital funding rounds for competing L2 solutions also influence trader conviction. Insider information leaks or security audits could trigger sharp repricing in either direction.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.