TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,661,467,257

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$3,439,456
Volume 24h:
$697,041
84%
Liquidity:
$894,392
3%
Open interest:
$67,485N/A

$200M

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?

4%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 4.2¢ buys you 2,381 shares | Odds: 4% Total Payout: $2,381 | Net Profit: $2,281 Multiplier: 23.81x | ROI: 2,281% High Projected APY: 1,271% 441 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

$200M

Trade
4%
Yes 4.2¢No 96¢
0.2¢
$43,612
$160,762
0.16%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$200M

Trade
3%
Yes 3.4¢No 97.5¢
0.9¢
$24,792
$136,209
0.12%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 3.8¢No 96.8¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.9¢
predict

$2B

Trade
3%
Yes 5.7¢No 99¢
4.7¢
$90,583
$255,228
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.8¢No 98.5¢
1.3¢
$29,115
$15,228
2%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 4.3¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4.7¢
predict

$1B

Trade
4%
Yes 6.5¢No 98.7¢
5.2¢
$55,434
$83,411
0%
0.97%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99¢
0.7¢
$21,500
$33,769
0.18%
20%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 4.1¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5.2¢
predict

$800M

Trade
3%
Yes 5.6¢No 98.8¢
4.4¢
$44,176
$421,838
0%
0.17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$800M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99¢
0.7¢
$19,810
$79,136
0.09%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.1%
Yes 3.7¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 4.4¢
predict

$600M

Trade
3%
Yes 2.8¢No 97.5¢
0.3¢
$55,806
$274,174
0%
0.41%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$600M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.5¢
1.4¢
$20,191
$52,674
0%
6%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.4¢
polymarket

$2.5B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.5¢No 97.8¢
1.3¢
$28,766
$13,684
0%
12%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$2.5B

Trade
2%
Yes 3.7¢No 99¢
2.7¢
$98,056
$249,755
0%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.4%
Yes 3.6¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2.7¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 98¢
1.3¢
$29,010
$161,287
0%
0.37%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$3B

Trade
2%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.8¢
2¢
$156,158
$312,824
0%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.4%
Yes 3.3¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2¢
predict

$1.5B

Trade
15%
Yes 28¢No 98¢
26¢
$56,393
$759,335
0%
0.12%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$1.5B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
0.2¢
$30,035
$12,876
0%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 15.1¢No 98¢
Avg: 13.1¢Max: 26¢
polymarket

$400M

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.5¢
0.4¢
$39,973
$80,203
0.18%
6%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$400M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.9¢
0.5¢
$50,983
$337,062
0%
0.34%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.5%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.7¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks whether Abstract's governance token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds on the day following its public launch. The markets span FDV targets from $200M to $3B, with resolution determined by multiplying total token supply by the most liquid available price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on launch day plus one calendar day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition, launch criteria, and deadline, with no material divergences in resolution logic.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Abstract governance token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, combined with official total token supply figures.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV = Total Token Supply × Token Price (from most liquid source)
  • Resolution Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch
  • Launch Criteria: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable
  • Each threshold market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified amount, No otherwise
  • Fallback: If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple Price Sources: If multiple exchanges or venues have different prices at 4:00 PM ET, the most liquid source (highest trading volume) determines the price used in FDV calculation.
  • Token Supply Ambiguity: Total token supply must be clearly defined and verifiable from official Abstract sources; if disputed, resolution uses the supply figure from the primary launch announcement.
  • Launch Timing Ambiguity: If token becomes transferable at different times across venues, the earliest public transferability timestamp marks the launch date for purposes of calculating the 1-day-after resolution window.
  • Exchange Halts or Delisting: If the most liquid venue halts trading before 4:00 PM ET on resolution day, the next most liquid available source is used; if no liquid source exists, resolution is delayed until liquidity returns or market is cancelled.
  • No Launch Before Deadline: If Abstract does not launch a publicly transferable and tradable token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of FDV threshold.
Timing: Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the date Abstract's governance token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve No.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether Abstract’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) will exceed $200 million one day after its launch. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $3,439,456, with $982 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the initial market capitalization of Abstract. The Abstract FDV market provides a unique opportunity to gauge market sentiment and potential price action surrounding this new cryptocurrency. The current spread between Polymarket and Predict is 12.1.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a forward-looking assessment of probability that differs from current spot prices. While spot prices represent the immediate value of an asset, this market aggregates opinions on a future event—Abstract’s FDV exceeding a specific threshold shortly after launch. This aggregated wisdom of the crowd can provide insights into market participants’ expectations for Abstract’s performance and potential adoption. The prices on Polymarket and Predict represent the collective belief about the likelihood of this outcome, potentially offering a more nuanced view than simply looking at the current price.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and market making on each platform can influence price formation. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? at 2.9%, while Predict leans toward Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? at 15.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Abstract's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted cryptocurrency data aggregator. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: did Abstract’s FDV exceed $200 million, or did it not? This market aims to provide a transparent and objective assessment of this key metric for the new cryptocurrency.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from the Abstract team, such as partnerships or technological breakthroughs, could boost confidence and drive up prices. Conversely, negative news, like security vulnerabilities or regulatory concerns, could lower prices. Overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and the broader economic environment will also play a role. Additionally, the initial trading volume and price action of Abstract immediately after launch will be closely watched and could heavily influence the outcome of this market. Any significant developments in the blockchain space could also indirectly affect trading activity.