TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Democratic party
- Kalshi
Democratic party - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 21, 2029
Latest in Elections
Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?
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Intro
This market tracks which political party will win the 2028 U.S. Presidential election. Currently, Kalshi gives a 58.0% probability to a Democratic win, and a 41.0% probability to a Republican win. The market resolves based on whether a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President on January 20, 2029, as determined by the inauguration itself. Traders should particularly watch the results of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5, 2028, as these will likely provide a clearer picture of each party’s frontrunner.
Kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intentions at a given moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those outcomes. Historically, prediction markets have often been more accurate than polls in forecasting election results, as they aggregate diverse information and incentivize informed participation. Any discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate differing beliefs about voter turnout, the impact of third-party candidates, or unforeseen events influencing the race.
This market resolves around Jan 21, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be determined by the party of the candidate who wins the 2028 United States presidential election, as verified by official election results. The market will settle to 100 for the winning party and 0 for all others. The resolution process relies on widely accepted and publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency, reflecting the official outcome of the election.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and Jan 21, 2029. Major economic shifts, unexpected geopolitical events, significant candidate announcements (such as running mates or policy platforms), and shifts in public opinion revealed by polling data all have the potential to alter trading activity. A major scandal involving a leading candidate, a surprising debate performance, or a substantial change in the political landscape could all lead to rapid price movements in this market. The evolving dynamics of the election cycle will be closely watched by traders.
