TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.3b

24H VOL:

$239,480,771

24H TRANSACTIONS:

951,753,729

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,119,973,071

828,371

Markets across

14,993

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

947

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Sports
polymarket
kalshi

2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$5,724,905
Volume 24h:
$16,705
61%
Liquidity:
$900,549
9%
Open interest:
$22,000
6%
PredictionHero
Aryna Sabalenka 27%
kalshi
Aryna Sabalenka 22%
polymarket
Elena Rybakina 17%
kalshi
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2…0204060

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open Women's Singles?

27%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 26¢ buys you 385 shares | Odds: 27% Total Payout: $385 | Net Profit: $285 Multiplier: 3.85x | ROI: 285% APY not meaningful 59 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 23¢ buys you 435 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $435 | Net Profit: $335 Multiplier: 4.35x | ROI: 335% APY not meaningful 58 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks which player will win the 2026 US Open Women's Singles tournament. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus view shows Aryna Sabalenka as the leading contender at 29.0%, followed by Karolina Muchova at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Official US Open website, with credible reporting as a secondary source. Watch for the conclusion of the tournament on September 13, 2026, when the champion will be crowned and markets will settle.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical core logic: one and only one player wins the tournament, and that player's market resolves Yes/True while all others resolve No/False. Cancellation or postponement beyond October 31, 2026 triggers alternative resolution (Other/No).Primary resolution logic: Official US Open website (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); consensus of credible reporting as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Exactly one player will win the 2026 Women's US Open Singles tournament
  • The winning player's market resolves to Yes (Kalshi) or Yes (Polymarket)
  • All non-winning player markets resolve to No
  • If a listed player becomes ineligible per tournament rules before or during the event, their market resolves to No
  • If the tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or produces no winner, all individual player markets resolve to No (Kalshi) or Other (Polymarket)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 US Open Women's Singles is cancelled or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, Polymarket resolves all player markets to Other; Kalshi resolves all player markets to No. This represents a unified outcome despite different label terminology.
  • Player Ineligibility: If a listed player becomes ineligible per official tournament rules (injury, disqualification, withdrawal before draw), their market resolves to No on both platforms.
  • Other/Unlisted Winner: Polymarket includes an explicit Other market for non-listed winners. Kalshi does not list an Other option; if an unlisted player wins, all Kalshi markets resolve to No. Polymarket's Other market would resolve to Yes.
  • Placeholder Players: Polymarket includes 26 placeholder markets (Player A through Player Z) with no identified individuals. These resolve to No unless the placeholder corresponds to an actual tournament winner, which is operationally impossible to verify. Kalshi does not use placeholders.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon official declaration of the 2026 US Open Women's Singles champion by the US Open or credible consensus reporting. The tournament window is August 23 - September 13, 2026, with a hard resolution deadline of October 31, 2026. Any cancellation or postponement after October 31, 2026 triggers alternative resolution.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The 2026 US Open Women's Singles market resolves to Yes for whichever eligible participant wins the professional tennis tournament. If any participant forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes official action that removes them from being able to win the tournament, that participant's market resolves to No. Only one participant can win the tournament and resolve to Yes.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.2PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.