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Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

Apr 7, 2026, 6:40 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$129,520
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$970
1%
Open interest:
$5,151N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

6%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 7¢ buys you 1,429 shares | Odds: 6% Total Payout: $1,429 | Net Profit: $1,329 Multiplier: 14.29x | ROI: 1,329% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$970
$116,779
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

May 31

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects a collective prediction about Ukraine’s ability to re-enter Myrnohrad. Comparing these odds to those offered by geopolitical analysts and polling data reveals interesting insights. While analyst forecasts often present a range of possibilities with qualitative assessments, this market provides a quantifiable probability. If analysts generally believe Ukraine has a low chance of success, we would expect to see lower probabilities reflected in this market. Discrepancies between this market and expert opinions can highlight differing assumptions or access to information, offering a unique perspective on the situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the probability of Ukraine re-entering Myrnohrad by the specified date. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price is solely determined by supply and demand within Polymarket, and isn't influenced by any external factors or other prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Ukraine has re-established control within the city limits of Myrnohrad, as determined by reliable sources. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and verified against credible reporting. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of whether the event has occurred, based on evidence available at the time of resolution.

Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Major military offensives or counteroffensives in the Donbas region, particularly those targeting Myrnohrad, would be key catalysts. Shifts in international support for Ukraine, including changes in military aid or political backing, could also influence trader sentiment. Significant territorial gains or losses by either side, combined with reports from reputable news organizations, would likely cause price fluctuations. Any official statements from Ukrainian or Russian authorities regarding Myrnohrad’s status would also be closely monitored by traders.