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Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?

Mar 6, 2026, 1:57 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$36,522
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$2,478
5%
Open interest:
$1,628N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?

11%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 11% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
$2,478
$15,170
0%
0.04%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Viroliubivka, Donetsk Oblast, as indicated by shading on the Institute for the Study of War map. On Polymarket, the probability that Russia captures this location by December 31, 2026 stands at 51.0%, while the probability of capture by May 31, 2025 is 2.9%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for updates to the ISW map through the end of 2026, as any persistent red shading indicating Russian control or assessed gains will trigger a Yes resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.608982° N, 37.720231° E in Viroliubivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+1.png Intersection Location in Viroliubivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+2.png Viroliubivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vir+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Nj4j57W7EW9qUPmRA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, assessing whether Russia will capture Viroliubivka by the resolution date requires comparing this market’s implied probability to expert analysis. Traditional geopolitical forecasts often rely on qualitative assessments and expert opinions, which can be subject to bias. This market, however, represents a collective prediction from a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the situation. If analyst forecasts significantly diverge from the probability reflected in this market, it could indicate differing interpretations of available information or varying levels of confidence in potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Russia capturing Viroliubivka by the resolution date. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability, as reflected by the share price, is 10.5%%. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price adjustments.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether verifiable evidence demonstrates that Russian forces have established full military control of Viroliubivka before the resolution date. This will be assessed based on reports from reputable news sources, governmental statements, and other publicly available information. The market will then settle based on whether Russia has demonstrably captured the town by the specified time.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major military offensives or counteroffensives in the region, shifts in the front lines, or significant changes in the level of international support for Ukraine could all influence trader sentiment. Political developments, such as negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or changes in leadership, could also play a role. Furthermore, reports of troop movements, supply chain disruptions, or strategic gains or losses by either side are likely to move this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.