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Will Russia capture Stavky by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Stavky by...?

Jun 5, 2026, 6:27 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$134,850
Volume 24h:
$617
719%
Liquidity:
$2,972
43%
Open interest:
$778N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Stavky by December 31, 2026?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 8¢ buys you 1,250 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,250 | Net Profit: $1,150 Multiplier: 12.50x | ROI: 1,150% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
7%
4%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$2,972
$3,226
19%
68%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97,461
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Stavky capture market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $525 and the total volume traded to date is $134,850. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of Russia capturing Stavky by the resolution date. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to this geopolitical event. The top outcome currently has a chance of 6.5%.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While analysts often provide nuanced assessments, this market offers a quantifiable probability based on real-money wagers. Currently, the market suggests a different likelihood than many publicly available expert opinions regarding the potential for Russia to capture Stavky. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access, biases, or simply the wisdom of the crowd effect. It’s important to consider both perspectives when forming a comprehensive view of the situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of Russia capturing Stavky. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is influenced by news events, geopolitical developments, and shifts in trader sentiment. The current volume indicates significant interest in this particular geopolitical question.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of the town of Stavky by the specified date. The determination will be based on publicly available information and reports from reputable news sources and governmental organizations. This market aims to provide a forward-looking assessment of this geopolitical event, allowing traders to express their views on the likelihood of Russia achieving its objectives in the region.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major military offensives or counter-offensives in the region would undoubtedly impact the odds. Changes in political leadership or statements from key government officials could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in international negotiations or the provision of military aid to Ukraine could shift the perceived balance of power. Furthermore, credible reports of significant territorial gains or losses around Stavky would likely cause a rapid adjustment in the market price. Any substantial shift in the battlefield dynamics will be reflected in the volume and price of this market.