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Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

Mar 23, 2026, 8:13 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$87,519
Volume 24h:
$45,282N/A
Liquidity:
$861
0%
Open interest:
$1,726N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
14%
Yes 18¢No 89¢
7¢
$861
$45,282
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,159
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the potential for Russia to capture Serhiivka. While expert opinions vary, this market represents the collective judgment of individuals wagering their own capital on the outcome. This can be a valuable signal, as it reflects a diverse range of information and perspectives. It’s important to note that forecasts are often based on stated assumptions, while this market incorporates real-time information and evolving circumstances. The question is whether the market will continue to align with or diverge from those external forecasts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price and the greater the implied probability of Russia capturing Serhiivka. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price and reduces the probability. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd participating in the market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Serhiivka by the specified date. Evidence will be assessed based on widely available and reliable sources, such as reports from international news organizations, governmental statements, and verified on-the-ground reporting. The market’s outcome will reflect the prevailing situation at the time of resolution, as determined by these publicly available sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major military offensives or counter-offensives in the region, shifts in the strategic objectives of either side, and significant changes in international support for Ukraine are all potential catalysts. Political developments, such as negotiations or declarations of intent, could also impact the market. Unexpected battlefield gains or losses, coupled with credible reporting, would likely cause a rapid reassessment of probabilities. Any verifiable evidence of Russian forces entering or controlling Serhiivka would be a key driver of price movement in this market.