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Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

May 1, 2026, 6:25 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$206,161
Volume 24h:
$3,083
67%
Liquidity:
$11,007
1%
Open interest:
$17,464N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

33%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 34¢ buys you 294 shares | Odds: 33% Total Payout: $294 | Net Profit: $194 Multiplier: 2.94x | ROI: 194% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
33%
2%
Yes 34¢No 68¢
2¢
$11,007
$56,890
4%
30%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Rai-Oleksandrivka capture market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing the town by the resolution date. You’ll find a price feed reflecting trader sentiment, a history of how the price has changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,401. Total volume for this market is $206,161. This allows you to see how actively traders are betting on the outcome and how the perceived probability has shifted. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a different outlook than some traditional analyst forecasts regarding the conflict in Ukraine. While expert opinions vary, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders. It's important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information not readily available in standard analyses, such as on-the-ground intelligence or subtle shifts in geopolitical dynamics. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to those offered by analysts can provide a broader perspective on the potential outcome of Russia capturing Rai-Oleksandrivka.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Russia will capture Rai-Oleksandrivka. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring, with higher prices signifying greater confidence in a ‘yes’ outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic price that reflects new information and changing perspectives.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Rai-Oleksandrivka by the specified date. This means demonstrable military control and administration of the town. The resolution will rely on publicly available information from reputable news sources and governmental reports to determine if the conditions for a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcome have been met. Traders will then be settled based on their positions in this market.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major military offensives or counter-offensives in the region, shifts in international support for Ukraine, or significant changes in Russian military strategy would all likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected political developments, such as a negotiated ceasefire or a change in leadership in either country, could also move the market. Any credible reports of substantial territorial gains or losses around Rai-Oleksandrivka will be closely watched by traders and could lead to rapid adjustments in the odds reflected in this market.