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Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
World
polymarket

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

May 1, 2026, 6:25 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$166,876
Volume 24h:
$954
740%
Liquidity:
$31,005
16%
Open interest:
$9,425N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

77%

+6.5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

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Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$880.6

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% | APY: 112% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.810403° N, 37.851396° E in Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka1.png Intersection Location in Rai-Oleksandrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka2.png Rai-Oleksandrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Rai-Oleksandrivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/98NiyN9BC3XQfy3N7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Russia-Rai-Oleksandrivka capture event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability estimate for whether Russia will capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by the specified deadline, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. The dashboard shows $166,876 in total volume and $954 in 24-hour trading activity, reflecting market conviction and liquidity. Historical price charts let you visualize how odds have shifted over time, while volume metrics indicate trader engagement and confidence in the outcome.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on military assessments, geopolitical reports, and historical precedent, prediction markets incorporate live information and trader incentives to be accurate. The current market estimate of 76.5% represents aggregated trader beliefs rather than expert opinion. Comparing these two approaches reveals whether markets are pricing in risks or opportunities that mainstream analysis may underweight or overlook regarding Russian territorial advances in this region.

On Polymarket, this event is priced using an automated market maker model where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect a 76.5% probability for the yes outcome, meaning traders assess a relatively low likelihood of Russian capture by the deadline. Share prices move inversely to demand: as more traders buy yes shares, the price rises and implied probability increases. The market has attracted $166,876 in cumulative volume, with $954 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating active price discovery around this geopolitical question.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution depends on verified reports of whether Russian forces have captured Rai-Oleksandrivka by that date. Outcome determination relies on credible open-source intelligence, military announcements, and news verification to establish control of the settlement. Traders should monitor official statements, conflict reporting, and territorial control maps as the deadline approaches. The binary nature of the market means resolution will be either yes or no, with no partial or ambiguous outcomes.

Major military operations, territorial advances, or retreats in the region will directly influence odds. Announcements of new Russian offensives, reinforcements, or logistical changes could increase the yes probability, while Ukrainian counteroffensives or defensive successes would decrease it. Diplomatic developments, ceasefire negotiations, or international intervention could reshape the timeline and feasibility of capture. Casualty reports, equipment losses, and supply chain disruptions affecting either side will also move trader sentiment. Real-time battlefield reports and geopolitical statements from key actors remain the primary catalysts for odds shifts through Jan 1, 2027.