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Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?

Apr 30, 2026, 3:54 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$128,525
Volume 24h:
$4,375
20,569%
Liquidity:
$750
79%
Open interest:
$2,670N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

8%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 8% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$750
$56,212
0%
0.43%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the implied probability of Russia capturing Prymorske by the resolution date, as reflected by this market, differs from many analyst forecasts. While some experts believe a Russian capture is increasingly likely, others predict continued stalemate or Ukrainian resistance. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and offering a real-time assessment that may diverge from traditional expert opinions. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a different form of forecasting, based on incentivized predictions rather than subjective analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of Russia capturing Prymorske by the specified date. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability, based on trading activity, is 8.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Prymorske is under full Russian military control by that date. This will be verified against credible public sources, such as reports from international organizations, government statements, and reputable news outlets. The market will then settle based on whether the condition is met, distributing payouts to those who correctly predicted the outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation on the ground, such as a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive or a substantial Russian advance, would likely cause price fluctuations. Political developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russian strategy, could also move the market. Additionally, any credible reports regarding troop movements, battlefield successes, or diplomatic negotiations could influence trader sentiment and alter the odds. Unexpected events, like a major escalation or a negotiated ceasefire, would also have a substantial effect.