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Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

May 21, 2026, 1:48 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$185,358
Volume 24h:
$3,937
1%
Liquidity:
$31,567
17%
Open interest:
$40,369N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

28%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% High Projected APY: 3,408% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
28%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$25,183
$72,193
3%
19%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6.5¢No 96.7¢
3.2¢
$6,384
$113,165
2%
29%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Russia will capture Orikhiv by the specified deadline, updated as traders buy and sell shares. The dashboard shows historical price movements, allowing you to see how market sentiment has shifted over time. Total group volume across all related outcomes reaches $185,358, reflecting sustained trader interest in this geopolitical event. You can monitor $3,934 in recent 24-hour activity to gauge current market momentum and liquidity.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on military assessments, supply-chain analysis, and historical precedent, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from participants with direct financial stakes in accuracy. For the Orikhiv capture question, market prices on Polymarket represent collective expectations about Russian military capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and logistical constraints. Comparing these odds to published forecasts from defense think tanks or geopolitical analysts can reveal where the market is more optimistic or pessimistic than expert consensus.

On Polymarket, the Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? event is priced as a binary outcome with the top outcome currently trading at 28.5% probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy YES shares if they believe Russia will capture Orikhiv by the deadline, or NO shares if they expect it will not. The price of each share reflects the market's collective assessment of likelihood, ranging from 0 to 100 cents. Higher prices indicate greater confidence in a Russian capture; lower prices suggest skepticism. Volume and liquidity on this specific outcome help determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions at competitive prices.

The Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? market is scheduled to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Russia has captured and maintains control of Orikhiv by that date. The outcome will be determined by verifiable geopolitical and military facts available at the resolution deadline. Traders should monitor official statements, independent reporting, and on-the-ground assessments as the deadline approaches. Any ambiguity about territorial control or the definition of capture may influence final settlement, so clarity on resolution criteria is essential for all market participants.

Several catalysts could shift odds for the Orikhiv capture market. Major military offensives or retreats by either Russia or Ukraine would directly impact expectations. Changes in weapons supply to Ukraine, sanctions escalation, or shifts in NATO involvement could alter the strategic balance. Casualty reports, supply-line disruptions, or breakthroughs in fortification technology may signal shifting momentum. Diplomatic developments or ceasefire negotiations could reduce the likelihood of further territorial gains. Weather patterns affecting combat operations, leadership changes, or public statements from military commanders often trigger repricing. Traders should track battlefield updates, defense ministry announcements, and international media coverage closely as the resolution date approaches.