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Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

May 21, 2026, 1:48 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$514,531
Volume 24h:
$4,824
51%
Liquidity:
$20,370
24%
Open interest:
$74,672N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% | APY: 126% 250 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
56%
1%
Yes 57¢No 45¢
2¢
$4,731
$12,844
2%
204%
N/A
8mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
27%
1%
Yes 29¢No 75¢
4¢
$2,982
$90,667
0%
2,732%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$12,657
$197,425
0.02%
8%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Orikhiv capture market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing Orikhiv by the resolution date, along with the total volume traded, which currently stands at $514,531. You can also view the 24-hour volume, presently at $241, providing insight into recent trading activity. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of the 'yes' outcome, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on Polymarket regarding this geopolitical event. This allows users to monitor market sentiment and potential shifts in expectations.

Currently, assessing whether Russia will capture Orikhiv by the resolution date reveals a divergence between prediction market sentiment and some analyst forecasts. While some analysts suggest a low probability of a Russian advance, this market indicates a more nuanced view, with traders assigning a probability to the event. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' approach, incorporating diverse information and perspectives, while analyst forecasts often represent individual opinions. This dynamic can lead to differences in projected outcomes for this event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether Russia will capture Orikhiv. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price (and probability), while increased selling pressure will lower it. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the potential for Russian military success in Orikhiv.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Orikhiv, as determined by widely available and reliable sources. The focus is on sustained control, not merely a temporary incursion. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments and reporting from reputable news organizations as the resolution date approaches to understand the evolving situation and potential impact on this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Orikhiv, such as a substantial Russian offensive or a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, would likely cause significant price fluctuations. Geopolitical developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russian strategy, could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, credible reports from reliable sources regarding troop movements, battlefield gains or losses, or diplomatic negotiations could all influence the price of contracts in this market.