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Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?

Jul 8, 2026, 11:36 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$331,368
Volume 24h:
$32,807
22,486%
Liquidity:
$7,730
20%
Open interest:
$31,445N/A

March 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

March 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 18¢ buys you 556 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $556 | Net Profit: $456 Multiplier: 5.56x | ROI: 456% High Projected APY: 4,899% 159 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
17%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
$2,206
$78,092
0.3%
19%
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$5,524
$60,515
0.72%
0.82%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192,762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka capture market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $669, with a total volume of $331,368 traded to date. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of Russia capturing Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by the resolution date. This allows users to monitor market sentiment and track changes in expectations over time. It's a central hub for understanding the collective prediction around this geopolitical event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While expert opinions on the conflict in Ukraine vary, this market offers a continuously updated probability assessment based on real-money bets. Currently, the implied probability differs from many publicly available analyst predictions, suggesting traders may have access to or place different weight on certain information. It's important to note that analyst forecasts are often static, while this market dynamically adjusts as new information emerges and perspectives shift.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Russia capturing Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price fluctuations, providing a real-time gauge of market sentiment. Higher demand for shares increases the price, indicating growing confidence in the outcome, while increased selling pressure lowers the price.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by that date, as determined by publicly available and verifiable information. The market will then settle based on this confirmed status, with share prices reflecting the final outcome. Traders should monitor news sources and official statements for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, such as a significant offensive by either side, would likely cause substantial price changes. Political developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russia's strategic objectives, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, credible reports of troop movements, supply chain disruptions, or key infrastructure damage could all influence the market's assessment of the probability of Russia capturing the town.