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Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?

May 28, 2026, 3:41 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$175,074
Volume 24h:
$1,561
150%
Liquidity:
$5,687
48%
Open interest:
$12,141N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

8%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 8% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
8%
2%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$5,687
$50,957
0.97%
21%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$124,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Kupiansk capture market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $489 and total volume has reached $175,074. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of Russia capturing Kupiansk by the resolution date. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to this specific geopolitical event. It's a central hub for following the market's activity.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Currently, analysts offer a range of opinions regarding the likelihood of Russia capturing Kupiansk, with estimates varying widely based on battlefield assessments and strategic considerations. This market, however, represents a weighted average of numerous individual predictions, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single expert's opinion. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than traditional analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Russia capturing Kupiansk, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information, geopolitical developments, and shifts in trader sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Kupiansk by the specified date. This determination will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources, such as independent news organizations, governmental reports, and verified on-the-ground accounts. The market's outcome will reflect the objective reality of control over the city at the time of resolution.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Kupiansk, such as a large-scale offensive or a significant Ukrainian counterattack, would likely cause substantial price movement. Political developments, including changes in military leadership or shifts in international support for either side, could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, credible reports of logistical challenges or troop movements could all contribute to fluctuations in the market's price as traders adjust their predictions.