TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$177,903,386
24H TRANSACTIONS:
950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,049,845,057
824,617
Markets across
14,701
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of Russian capture by December 31, 2026 stands at 94.0%, while capture by September 30, 2026 is priced at 28.5%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for updates to the ISW map through the end of 2026, as any persistent red shading indicating Russian control will trigger a Yes resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railroad station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) located on Pryvokzalna vulytsia, in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+train+station.jpeg Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...? contract is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares representing yes (Russia captures Kupiansk) or no (Russia does not capture Kupiansk by the deadline). The current price reflects 33.5% implied probability for the leading outcome. Prices adjust in real time as traders respond to military developments, strategic announcements, and geopolitical shifts. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in that outcome; lower prices suggest skepticism. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions.
The Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...? market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Russian forces have captured and maintained control of Kupiansk, a key city in eastern Ukraine's Kharkiv region, by that deadline. The outcome will be determined by verified reports from credible sources documenting territorial control at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor official announcements, military assessments, and on-the-ground reporting as the deadline approaches to understand how resolution criteria will be applied.
Major catalysts include battlefield advances or retreats around Kupiansk, shifts in Russian military strategy or resource allocation, Ukrainian counteroffensives, international military aid announcements, and diplomatic developments affecting the conflict's trajectory. Tactical changes such as new Russian offensive operations, supply line disruptions, or changes in command could accelerate or delay any capture attempt. Geopolitical events like sanctions escalation, NATO involvement shifts, or peace negotiations would also influence market pricing. Winter conditions, troop rotations, and casualty rates are additional factors traders monitor when assessing Russia's capacity to capture and hold Kupiansk by the resolution date.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.