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Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture a specific intersection in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of Russian capture by that date stands at 32.0%, while capture by May 31 is priced at 5.0%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW Ukraine map, which tracks Russian territorial control in real time through daily updates showing assessed Russian control, advances, and gains. Watch the ISW map's daily update cycle through June 30, 2026 for any shading indicating Russian control of the specified coordinates to persist through the next finalized update.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, the Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? contract is priced at 36.0% probability, meaning traders assess a 36.0% chance of the outcome occurring by that date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the ratio of shares bought for "Yes" versus "No," with each contract worth one dollar at settlement if the outcome is confirmed. Trading volume of $110,134 demonstrates active participation in pricing this specific territorial question. As new information emerges about military operations, logistics, or diplomatic developments, traders adjust positions, moving the price up or down accordingly.
The market resolves on Sep 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined based on verified reports of whether Russia has captured Huliaipilske by the specified deadline. Resolution depends on credible documentation of territorial control, typically from news sources, military reports, or official statements. The event is binary: either Russia has captured the location by the deadline or it has not. Traders should monitor official announcements and reputable conflict-tracking sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be adjudicated.
Major military operations, territorial advances, or retreats in the Donetsk or Luhansk regions could significantly shift odds. Announcements of new Russian offensives, supply-line disruptions, or Ukrainian counteroffensives would alter trader expectations. Diplomatic developments, ceasefire negotiations, or international sanctions changes may also influence the probability. Intelligence reports on Russian troop deployments, equipment losses, or logistical capacity near Huliaipilske could trigger sharp price moves. Media coverage of specific battles or casualty figures affecting military momentum, along with seasonal factors affecting combat operations, will likely drive trading activity and odds adjustments through the resolution date.
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