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Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

Apr 13, 2026, 6:49 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$145,295
Volume 24h:
$202
18%
Liquidity:
$1,398
43%
Open interest:
$341N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?

32%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 32% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
32%
5%
Yes 33¢No 70¢
3¢
$1,398
$1,170
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,032
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Huliaipilske capture market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing the city by the resolution date. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability has shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $30. Total volume for this market is $145,295, indicating the level of interest and trading activity. This allows you to see how traders are assessing the likelihood of the event happening, and how that assessment changes as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the potential for a Russian capture of Huliaipilske. While expert opinions vary, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders actively putting capital at risk. It’s important to remember that analysts may focus on different factors or have inherent biases, while the market price represents a real-time assessment of probability based on available information and the willingness of participants to buy or sell. This provides a unique data point when evaluating the situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of Russia capturing Huliaipilske by the resolution date. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as reflected by the price, is that Russia will not capture the city, with a chance of approximately 31.5%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on determining whether Russian forces have established and maintain full military control of Huliaipilske by the specified date. The outcome will be assessed based on reports from reputable news sources, governmental organizations, and other publicly available information. The focus is on verifiable control, not just temporary incursions or claims of capture.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major military offensives or counter-offensives in the region, changes in the intensity of fighting around Huliaipilske, or shifts in Russian strategic objectives would all likely cause price movement. Political developments, such as negotiations or changes in international support for Ukraine, could also play a role. Unexpected logistical challenges faced by either side, or reports of significant troop movements, are additional signals traders will be watching closely to reassess the probability of Russia capturing the city.