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Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?

Apr 13, 2026, 6:49 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$152,618
Volume 24h:
$10,657
177,076%
Liquidity:
$1,853
37%
Open interest:
$3,028N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% High Projected APY: 1,334% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
59%
6%
Yes 60¢No 42¢
2¢
$1,853
$9,247
4%
203%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Dovha Balka capture market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume traded on this market is $152,618, with $337 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of Russia capturing Dovha Balka by the resolution date. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations over time. It's a central hub for monitoring activity related to this specific prediction.

Comparing the probabilities reflected in this market to those from traditional analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights. While analysts often offer nuanced assessments, this market distills those perspectives into a single, quantifiable probability. Currently, the implied probability differs from many publicly available geopolitical analyses, which suggest a lower likelihood of Russian forces capturing Dovha Balka within the timeframe. This divergence may reflect the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating information not fully captured in standard reports, or differing interpretations of the same data. It's important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Russia capturing Dovha Balka by the resolution date, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, Russia capturing Dovha Balka by the specified date, has a chance percentage of 59.0%. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations that reflect new information and evolving expectations regarding the conflict.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Dovha Balka by the specified date, as determined by publicly available and independently verifiable information. The resolution will be based on a clear demonstration of control, not simply temporary presence or skirmishes in the area. The market will close and payouts will be distributed based on whether the outcome is deemed to have occurred.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in the military situation around Dovha Balka, such as a large-scale offensive or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive, would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in geopolitical dynamics, including shifts in international support for either side, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, credible reports of troop movements, strategic gains or losses, or changes in military leadership could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Any news impacting the overall trajectory of the conflict has the potential to shift trader sentiment.