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Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

Apr 1, 2026, 3:31 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$136,606
Volume 24h:
$1,315
56%
Liquidity:
$27,057
2%
Open interest:
$21,787N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?

62%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 62¢ buys you 161 shares | Odds: 62% Total Payout: $161 | Net Profit: $61 Multiplier: 1.61x | ROI: 61% High Projected APY: 1,109% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
62%
2%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
$27,057
$91,720
1%
16%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast (48.40731° N, 37.17956° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Bilytske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast (48.40731° N, 37.17956° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Bilytske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bilytske control market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing all of Bilytske, displaying the implied probability as a percentage. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $240. Total volume for this market is $136,606. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the potential control of Bilytske.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a probability of Russia capturing all of Bilytske. This differs from some analyst forecasts, which present a range of potential outcomes. While some analysts predict a continued stalemate, others anticipate further Russian gains. It’s important to note that prediction markets like this one represent a collective forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully reflected in traditional analyst reports. The market offers a real-time assessment of this geopolitical situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of Russia capturing all of Bilytske. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the collective assessment of traders on Polymarket regarding the likelihood of this event occurring.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established complete control over the entirety of Bilytske, as determined by publicly available and independently verifiable information. The market will close and payouts will be distributed based on whether the outcome is deemed to have occurred by the resolution date. Traders should monitor news sources for updates regarding the situation in Bilytske as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major military offensives by either side, shifts in international support for Ukraine, or significant territorial changes in the region are all potential catalysts. Unexpected political developments within Russia or Ukraine could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, reports from reliable sources detailing the extent of Russian control over Bilytske, or changes in the intensity of fighting, will likely cause price fluctuations in this market. Any news that alters the perceived probability of Russia’s complete capture of Bilytske could lead to substantial movement.