TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Justin Bieber
- Kalshi
Justin Bieber - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Closed: Jul 8, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Billie Eilish will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show. On Kalshi, the probability of Billie Eilish performing stands at 22.0%, while an unnamed competing artist holds 15.0%. Resolution will be determined by official announcement or confirmation during the event timeframe, as specified by Kalshi's resolution source. Watch for the halftime performance announcement leading up to the World Cup final on December 31, 2026, which will settle this market.
Kalshi
A performer resolves to Yes if they perform or are announced to perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show during the official event timeframe. The performer must appear on stage or in the official broadcast/stream and actively contribute musically by singing (including audible lead or backing vocals), rapping, playing a musical instrument, DJing, or conducting a live band. They must be either a scheduled performer, a guest appearance during another artist's set, or formally announced by official event organizers or their representatives. Qualifying performances include solo performances, collaborative performances where the artist is physically present and contributes musically, guest appearances with at least one full verse/chorus/segment, medleys with active participation, satellite/video/holographic performances produced specifically for the event, DJ sets with live equipment operation, pre-recorded segments attributed as performances (not tributes), performances beginning during the official timeframe but extending beyond due to scheduling overrun, and performances at rescheduled versions occurring within one year of the original date. Resolution may occur upon announcement of anticipated performance, and subsequent withdrawal does not affect the resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts or media speculation. Markets price in live information, betting patterns, and collective wisdom faster than static expert predictions. While analysts may rely on artist availability, FIFA preferences, or historical precedent, prediction markets weight all available signals dynamically. Comparing Kalshi odds to published expert opinions or entertainment industry forecasts reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish on specific performers than conventional wisdom suggests.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, after the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show concludes. Resolution is determined by the official performer(s) announced and confirmed by FIFA and broadcast authorities. Once the halftime performance occurs, the outcome is locked in and all positions settle according to the actual artist or group that took the stage. Traders holding contracts on the correct performer receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Key catalysts include official FIFA announcements naming the halftime performer, artist availability updates or tour schedule changes, geopolitical or health factors affecting travel, and media reports about negotiations with potential acts. Major entertainment news—such as an artist's retirement, new album release, or high-profile conflict—can shift market odds significantly. Betting volume spikes often precede or follow credible leaks or insider information. As the 2026 final approaches, confirmed details will narrow uncertainty and compress odds around the true performer, while early speculation drives wider price ranges and higher volatility.
