TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Ashley Trail
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 17, 2026
Closed: Jul 16, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group tracks individual evictions from Big Brother Season 28 during Week 1 (July 10-16, 2026). Each market resolves Yes if the named contestant is officially eliminated from the competition during this specific week, and No otherwise. The group contains 16 parallel binary markets, one per contestant.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket defines Week 1 eviction with explicit date range (Jul 10-16, 11:59 PM ET) and reversal carve-outs; Kalshi's deadline (before Jul 10) contradicts the Jul 9 premiere and lacks week-specific scope or finality rules.Hero tip: Polymarket's rules are operationally clear and address edge cases (reversals, reinstates, disqualifications). Kalshi's rule set appears to contain a drafting error in the deadline. Verify Kalshi's intent before committing capital. If Kalshi intends the same Week 1 window as Polymarket, the markets should resolve identically; if not, arbitrage risk exists.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Eviction must occur between July 10, 2026 and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifies if contestant is removed from competition during standard eviction, surprise vote, double eviction, or challenge failure. Disqualification and voluntary departure do not count. Reversals during the same episode do not qualify; however, if eliminated but later returns, the original elimination counts. Market stays open until finality confirmed. Key quote: 'This market will stay open until the end of the relevant episode to confirm the finality of eviction.'
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if contestant is 'officially eliminated' before July 10, 2026. No week-specific window, no finality rules, no reversal carve-outs. Deadline precedes season premiere (Jul 9), creating logical impossibility for Week 1 evictions. Key quote: 'If [contestant] is officially eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 Before Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
Big Brother season 28 premiered on July 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is evicted from Big Brother season 28 between July 10, 2026 and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An eviction will qualify if the individual is removed from further competition within the structure of the competition, regardless of whether it happens during a standard eviction cycle, a surprise vote or double eviction, or based on challenge performance. Disqualification or voluntary departure will not count. If an individual is eliminated but later returns, re-enters, or is reinstated, the original elimination will qualify. However, a declaration of elimination that is immediately and explicitly reversed or nullified during the same episode or broadcast segment (e.g., through a judge’s save, secret participation, public vote, or immunity twist) will not qualify. This market will stay open until the end of the relevant episode to confirm the finality of eviction. This market will remain open until a qualifying eviction is confirmed. However, if no qualifying eviction airs on the official broadcast of Big Brother season 28 by July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be footage from the relevant week of Big Brother Season 28 or a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
A contestant is considered officially eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 if they are voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntarily withdraw, are disqualified, or are removed by producers before July 10, 2026. Official elimination must be declared through the program's broadcast, official website, verified social media accounts, or press releases. If multiple contestants are eliminated simultaneously, all such eliminations count toward resolution. A contestant's initial elimination counts even if they later return to the game through a twist or comeback mechanism. However, eliminations that are immediately reversed within the same episode do not count. Temporary suspensions, medical holds, or finishing as runner-up in the finale are not considered eliminations. If Big Brother Season 28 is canceled before eliminations are officially declared, the market resolves to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here often diverge from traditional analyst commentary because they aggregate real-money incentives rather than editorial opinion. Traders who forecast incorrectly lose capital, creating a self-correcting mechanism that can outperform casual punditry. Analysts may emphasize narrative or personality, while this market reflects probabilistic bets on actual voting outcomes. Over time, markets tend to incorporate breaking news, social media sentiment, and behind-the-scenes information faster than published analysis, making them a useful cross-check against conventional forecasts.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price the same eviction outcome differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One venue might attract more casual bettors while the other draws professional traders, shifting the odds. Trading hours, fee structures, and platform-specific incentives also influence price discovery. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge when spreads widen, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals where conviction is strongest and where pricing may be temporarily inefficient.
Live feeds, confessional footage, and behind-the-scenes alliances often shift odds as viewers gain insight into voting intentions. Surprise twists—such as immunity challenges, hidden powers, or rule changes—can rapidly reprrice eviction odds. Social media campaigns and fan voting blocs, if applicable, may influence houseguest safety or vulnerability. Injuries, medical withdrawals, or disqualifications would instantly alter the candidate pool. Major gameplay moments or shocking betrayals during the week typically trigger sharp repricing as traders update their models based on new information about player dynamics and voting coalitions.