TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.3b
24H VOL:
$249,147,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,132,145,370
829,293
Markets across
15,026
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
952
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Video games released this year? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jan 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether a major video game title will achieve full release on at least one U.S. platform before the calendar turns to 2027. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—full release before January 1, 2027—stands at 94.0%. Resolution will be determined by official release announcements and platform availability records in the United States. Watch for the publisher's official launch date announcement and any delays or platform exclusivity changes that could affect the final release window before the year-end deadline.
Kalshi
Each game resolves to Yes upon full release before January 1, 2027 on any platform in the United States. Full release means the game is commercially available to the general public, not in early access, beta, or limited release phases. Release on any platform (console, PC, mobile, etc.) satisfies the condition. The resolution is based on the official release date in the United States market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts and industry reports on video game releases. Markets reflect real-time trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information, whereas analyst predictions rely on published timelines and studio statements. Prediction markets tend to price in delays and development risks more dynamically, especially when studios announce setbacks or go silent. Comparing Kalshi odds to gaming media coverage and publisher guidance reveals where traders expect outcomes to differ from official expectations, making markets a complementary signal to traditional industry analysis.
On Kalshi, the top outcome—Will Half-Life 3 release this year?—is currently priced at 99.0% implied probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in whether this highly anticipated title will launch before year-end. Price discovery happens through continuous order-book matching, with volume concentrated around major announcements or release window milestones. The pricing mechanism allows participants to express nuanced views on development timelines, regulatory hurdles, and publisher strategy, with share prices updating in real time as new information emerges.
The Which video games will release this year market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by whether each tracked video game officially releases to the public by that deadline. Outcomes hinge on actual launch dates announced by publishers and confirmed through major retail or digital distribution channels. Markets remain active until the resolution date, allowing traders to adjust positions as release windows narrow and announcements firm up.
Major catalysts for this market include official publisher announcements confirming or delaying release dates, developer studio updates on production status, and industry events like gaming conferences where launch windows are revealed. Unexpected delays, leadership changes, or technical setbacks reported in gaming media can shift odds sharply downward. Conversely, gold-master announcements or retail pre-order launches signal imminent releases and boost probabilities. Regulatory approvals, platform exclusivity deals, and competitive title launches also influence trader expectations around which games will actually reach players before year-end.
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