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Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Russia will capture territory in specific Ukrainian cities by the end of 2026, based on the Institute for the Study of War map. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—Russia entering Doprillia by December 31, 2026—stands at 61.5%, while Russia entering Druzhkivka by the same date is priced at 27.0%. Resolution will be determined by ISW's daily map updates, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if ISW becomes unavailable. Watch for any persistent shading changes on the ISW map indicating Russian control through the next full update cycle, as the betting window closes at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and often diverge meaningfully from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts typically rely on military assessments, diplomatic statements, and historical precedent, prediction markets incorporate live geopolitical developments and trader conviction through direct capital allocation. The current market pricing suggests traders assign specific probabilities to individual cities by December 31, 2026. Comparing these odds to published think-tank assessments or government intelligence summaries can reveal where markets price in scenarios analysts may underweight or overweight.
On Polymarket, each potential city outcome is priced as a separate binary contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top-tracked outcome, Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026, currently trades at 55.5% probability. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in whether Russia will enter that specific city by the resolution date. Prices fluctuate based on new military developments, diplomatic announcements, and shifts in trader sentiment. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in entry; lower prices suggest skepticism.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution depends on verified reports of Russian military entry into each specified city by that deadline. Outcomes are determined by credible open-source intelligence, news reports, and official statements confirming territorial control or military presence. Each city outcome resolves independently; a trader's position on one city does not affect outcomes for others. The binary nature means each city either has been entered or has not by the resolution date.
Major catalysts include battlefield advances or retreats, ceasefire negotiations, diplomatic breakthroughs, and official announcements of territorial gains or losses. Military offensives targeting specific cities will directly impact odds for those outcomes. Statements from Russian, Ukrainian, or NATO officials regarding strategic objectives can shift trader expectations. Seasonal military activity, supply chain disruptions, and international sanctions may influence Russia's operational capacity. Intelligence reports on troop deployments and logistical positioning near target cities will also move prices as traders reassess the likelihood of entry by December 31, 2026.
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