TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.8b
24H VOL:
$58,910,711
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,340,574,887
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,102,578,508
307,732
Markets across
29,900
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,250
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
UFC
- Kalshi
UFC - Kalshi
100%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Vol.
$69.7k
·
Resolves Sep 1, 2026
Time left: 08d:09h:49m
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will mention the word "UFC" in any public statement before September 1, 2026, according to Kalshi's rules. The current probability on Kalshi for Trump saying "UFC" is 99.0%. The resolution source is based on Trump's direct quotes in speeches, social media posts, or published interviews. Watch for any public statements Trump makes leading up to the September 1, 2026 deadline, as this is the final date for the market to resolve.
Kalshi
The event consists of 31 separate markets, each defined by a unique phrase or term (e.g., "Greenland," "Zohran / Mamdani," "Knicks"). For any market to resolve as "Yes," Donald Trump must use the exact specified phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in a public statement before September 1, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. Valid statements include direct quotes in speeches, published interviews, or posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official government actions such as executive orders, signed bills, or similar documents do not qualify. Phrases with slashes (e.g., "Fat shot / Ozempic") are treated such that either word satisfies the condition. Grammatical variations (e.g., past tense) are not counted unless the exact phrase is used. All instances must occur after the market issuance date. If Trump uses any of the listed phrases as specified, the corresponding market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more immediate, trader-driven perspective. While analysts may incorporate polls, historical trends, and policy analysis, prediction market odds capture real-time betting sentiment. This can lead to divergence — for example, analysts might rate the chance of a specific statement higher or lower than the current market price, depending on recent news cycles and public sentiment.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post their own bids and asks. The current implied probability reflects the best available bid ask spread, updated instantly with each new trade. This decentralized pricing mechanism allows rapid adjustment to new information, with volume of $585,105 indicating overall interest.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch for any public statements, press conferences, or official releases from Trump during the specified period. The market settles based on whether the exact wording or meaning matches the defined criteria, as confirmed by independent media sources.
Market movement will likely hinge on media coverage of Trump’s upcoming speeches, social media posts, and any scheduled public appearances. Breaking political news, poll releases, or reactions to current events can shift trader sentiment quickly. Additionally, any indication of preparation for specific statements — such as announcement schedules or quote previews — may cause rapid price adjustments as participants reassess probabilities.