TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.8b
24H VOL:
$58,910,711
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,340,574,887
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,102,578,508
307,732
Markets across
29,900
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,250
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 1, 2026
Will Kevin Warsh say AI / Artificial Intelligence at his Sep 2026 press conference?
$
Description
This event tracks whether the Federal Reserve Chair uses specific phrases during a post-FOMC meeting address. The outcome depends on the exact wording used in the introductory remarks and Q+A session, with precise matching required for resolution.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if, during the Chair of the Federal Reserve's September 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, the Chair utters any of the specified phrases listed across the 44 markets. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the event; if video review does not achieve consensus among Kalshi employees, official internal and external transcripts are used as fallback. The exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, must appear—grammatical or tense variations do not count. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase, and the presence of any qualifying phrase triggers a Yes outcome for its respective market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market implies a probability that can be contrasted with analyst forecasts from major financial institutions. While analysts may weigh economic policy implications through traditional research reports, traders on Kalshi are pricing in the likelihood of particular phrases or topics being addressed. The gap between these views can highlight areas where market participants diverge from expert consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the press conference concludes, organizers will compare the transcript or official recording against the exact wording required for each possible outcome.
Media previews, preliminary speeches, or quotes from advisors leading up to the conference could shift this market. Economic data releases or political developments that affect the perceived agenda may also cause traders to adjust their bets, especially if they suggest a higher or lower chance of certain topics being addressed.