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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?
Productivity
- Kalshi
Productivity - Kalshi
80%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
$758.0
·
Resolves Sep 13, 2026
Time left: 21d:01h:56m
What will Kevin Warsh say during remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium?
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Description
The event centers on monitoring Kevin Warsh's remarks during the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium, focusing on whether he mentions specific predefined terms. The outcome hinges on the exact wording used during his official speech, with resolution based on live broadcasts or official transcripts.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Kevin Warsh includes specific phrases in his official remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium. Each market corresponds to a unique term or phrase (e.g., Powell, Trump, AI, Afford, Gold, etc.). For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' Warsh must use the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, during the live, press-accessible broadcast of his speech. Video recordings are the primary source for resolution, supplemented by official transcripts if needed. If the event is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or Warsh does not speak officially, all markets resolve to 'No,' except the 'Event does not qualify' market, which resolves to 'Yes.' Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days allow markets to remain open.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking perspective. While analysts may focus on current data and official statements, traders in this market incorporate a broader range of signals, including sentiment, potential policy hints, and market reactions. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from traditional forecasts, especially when analysts express uncertainty or when market participants anticipate unexpected remarks.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the top outcome currently showing a chance of 79.0%. The market price reflects the collective assessment of participants about the likelihood of specific phrases or themes being emphasized in the speech, adjusted for recent news, Fed signaling, and broader economic context.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the exact wording and context of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks as delivered and reported by authoritative news outlets and official transcripts.
Key signals that could shift this market include previews or leaks from Fed officials, changes in economic data releases, market reactions to other central bank speeches, and any public commentary from Warsh himself or close associates. Geopolitical developments or sudden shifts in financial market sentiment may also influence trader expectations about the tone and content of the remarks.