TOTAL VOLUME:
$92.1b
24H VOL:
$282,436,589
24H TRANSACTIONS:
878,906,579
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,069,688,872
777,049
Markets across
13,962
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
889
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
46%
VS.
Kalshi:
54%
What will be the top US Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$331,239
Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1 100%
Trust Me: The False Prophet 100%
Beef: Season 2 0%
Closed: Apr 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as of the chart published on April 21, 2026. Netflix updates this ranking weekly based on total viewership data from the prior week (Monday–Sunday), and both platforms resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 ranking published on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket uses placeholder show names (Show I, Show D, Show A, etc.) alongside real titles, creating ambiguity about which specific shows are being tracked. Kalshi lists only concrete show titles with seasons/series specifications. This creates a scope and identifiability mismatch between platforms.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket, verify which actual show each placeholder (Show I, Show D, etc.) maps to before settlement, as the platform does not explicitly define these. On Kalshi, all 14 markets reference identifiable shows, so resolution is more transparent. Avoid betting on Polymarket placeholder markets unless the platform clarifies the mapping.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Defines 22 markets including both named shows (XO Kitty Season 3, Big Mistakes Season 1, etc.) and undefined placeholders (Show I, Show D, Show A, Show C, Show F, Show H, Show E, Show G, Show K, Show B). Resolution rule: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States' on April 21, 2026. If no update by April 24, 2026 11:59 PM ET, resolves to Other. Exactly one market should resolve YES.
- Kalshi: Defines 14 markets, each tied to a specific named show with season/series identifier (Raw 2026, XO Kitty Season 3, Ms. Rachel Season 1, The Predator of Seville Limited Series, etc.). Resolution rule: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' All shows are explicitly named; no placeholders.
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