TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 22, 2026
Closed: Apr 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 36
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as of the chart published on April 21, 2026. Netflix updates this ranking weekly based on total viewership data from the prior week (Monday–Sunday), and both platforms resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 ranking published on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket uses placeholder show names (Show I, Show D, Show A, etc.) alongside real titles, creating ambiguity about which specific shows are being tracked. Kalshi lists only concrete show titles with seasons/series specifications. This creates a scope and identifiability mismatch between platforms.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket, verify which actual show each placeholder (Show I, Show D, etc.) maps to before settlement, as the platform does not explicitly define these. On Kalshi, all 14 markets reference identifiable shows, so resolution is more transparent. Avoid betting on Polymarket placeholder markets unless the platform clarifies the mapping.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Defines 22 markets including both named shows (XO Kitty Season 3, Big Mistakes Season 1, etc.) and undefined placeholders (Show I, Show D, Show A, Show C, Show F, Show H, Show E, Show G, Show K, Show B). Resolution rule: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 Netflix show in the United States' on April 21, 2026. If no update by April 24, 2026 11:59 PM ET, resolves to Other. Exactly one market should resolve YES.
- Kalshi: Defines 14 markets, each tied to a specific named show with season/series identifier (Raw 2026, XO Kitty Season 3, Ms. Rachel Season 1, The Predator of Seville Limited Series, etc.). Resolution rule: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' All shows are explicitly named; no placeholders.