TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.3b
24H VOL:
$249,147,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,132,145,370
829,293
Markets across
15,026
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
952
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$178,067
The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4 100%
The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4 96%
Bridgerton: Season 4 7%
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on February 17, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on the same official Netflix data source and timing, with Kalshi offering 13 specific show outcomes and Polymarket offering a broader set of named and placeholder outcomes plus an 'Other' catch-all.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the identical resolution trigger: Netflix's official #1 ranking on the global Top 10 TV shows list as of February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, based on total global views for English-language shows.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 global TV shows list (top10.netflix.com), published February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs on February 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its weekly Top 10 global TV shows update
- The #1-ranked show on that list determines the winner across all markets on both platforms
- Ranking is based on total global views for English-language TV shows only, as reported by Netflix
- Kalshi offers 13 specific named shows; any show matching one of these names resolves that market to Yes
- Polymarket offers named shows (Is It Cake? Valentines, Bridgerton: Season 4, How to Get to Heaven from Belfast, The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4, Love is Blind: Season 10) plus placeholder outcomes (Show A through Show K) and an 'Other' catch-all
- If Netflix's #1 show is not explicitly named on either platform, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and Kalshi resolves all named markets to No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update delay or failure: If top10.netflix.com does not publish an update by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi has no explicit fallback rule and would resolve all named markets to No by default.
- Placeholder show ambiguity (Polymarket): Polymarket uses placeholder names (Show A through Show K) without defining which real shows they represent. Resolution depends on Netflix's actual #1 ranking; if the #1 show is not one of the explicitly named options, it falls to 'Other'.
- Show title variations or rebranding: Resolution requires exact match to show titles as they appear on Netflix's official Top 10 list. Minor variations (e.g., punctuation, capitalization, season numbering format) could create ambiguity; Netflix's official list is the authoritative source.
- Tie or co-ranking: Netflix's Top 10 list ranks shows in ordinal position; if Netflix reports a tie for #1, the show listed first on the official page is the winner.
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