TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
>115m
- Polymarket
>115m - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 19, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the domestic opening weekend box office gross for the film "The Odyssey," measured in millions of dollars. On Polymarket, the probability that opening weekend box office will exceed 115 million dollars stands at 96.9%, with a 2.5% probability of a result between 105 million and 115 million dollars. Resolution will be determined by the Daily Box Office Performance figures on The Numbers website. Watch for the final box office tallies as they are reported on July 19, 2026, which marks the end of the opening weekend measurement period.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 17 - July 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because they incorporate live sentiment and new data continuously. While film analysts and studios release opening weekend projections based on historical patterns and marketing spend, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published analyst ranges can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to consensus expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, once opening weekend box office results are finalized and verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the actual domestic box office total earned during the film's opening weekend, which is then matched against the outcome brackets defined in the market. Once the final figure is confirmed, the contract corresponding to the correct range is marked as correct, and traders holding winning shares receive their payout.
Several catalysts can shift odds significantly before resolution. Advance ticket sales data, early critic reviews, and social media buzz often trigger repricing as traders update their forecasts. Competing film releases, holiday timing, and unexpected news about the production or cast can also move the market. Additionally, studio marketing intensity, trailer performance, and real-time audience sentiment tracked through online forums and tracking services all influence trader behavior. Any major industry development or shift in consumer interest will likely be reflected in price movement.
