TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.4b
24H VOL:
$262,303,213
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,141,102,016
829,983
Markets across
14,982
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
954
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
"The Bride!" Rotten Tomatoes score? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$449,770
Above 45 100%
Above 55 100%
Above 50 100%
Closed: Mar 9, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Description
This event group tracks the critical reception of the film 'The Bride!' (2026) as measured by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. Multiple prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi have created binary contracts at various score thresholds (30, 40, 45, 50, 52, 55, 57, 60, 62, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90) to allow traders to bet on whether the film will achieve specific critical approval levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket uses inclusive threshold logic (>=) while Kalshi uses exclusive threshold logic (>). At exact threshold boundary values, the two platforms will produce opposite resolutions for nominally identical contracts.Hero tip: Exact-threshold scores create arbitrage risk. If The Bride! scores exactly 80, Polymarket's '80+' contract wins but Kalshi's '>80' contract loses. Cross-platform hedging at the same threshold is ineffective. Prioritize understanding Rotten Tomatoes' rounding methodology and whether the final published score will be an integer or decimal.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Uses >= (at least equal to) comparison. Resolves YES if final Tomatometer score is greater than or equal to the threshold. Example: 80+ threshold resolves YES if score is 80, 81, 82, etc. Fallback: resolves NO if no data by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Uses > (above) comparison. Resolves YES if final Tomatometer score is strictly greater than the threshold. Example: >80 threshold resolves YES only if score is 81, 82, etc.; score of exactly 80 resolves NO. No explicit fallback documented.
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