TOTAL VOLUME:
$103.3b
24H VOL:
$85,412,874
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,054,885,632
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,264,841,572
189,125
Markets across
17,798
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,245
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
44%
VS.
Kalshi:
56%
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Latest in Sports
Time left: 05h:46m:13s
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the total kills in Game 1 of the League of Legends match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend will exceed 27.5. The aggregated consensus probability for the 'Over' outcome stands at 99.0%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, and Predict, with resolution based on official results from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Watch for the match on July 26 at 5:00AM ET, as this will determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same resolution source and logic for determining match outcomes, game results, and edge cases.Primary resolution logic: https://gol.gg/esports/home, with fallback to credible reporting consensus including video evidenceCore resolution logic:
- Match winner determined by the first team to win a majority of games (2 out of 3)
- Markets resolve to 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner determined
- If the match begins but is not completed due to forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, resolution depends on whether a winner is determined or if it results in 50-50 per market rules
- In-game event markets (e.g., Baron Nashor, Dragon kills) resolve based on completed game data or prior to stoppage if the game ends early
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match Cancellation: All markets resolve to 50-50 if the match is canceled before any play begins or is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner determined
- Game Remakes: If a game is remade due to technical issues, resolution is based solely on the remade game’s results
- Name Discrepancies: Minor name variations (e.g., abbreviations, sponsor tags) are treated as the same team if clearly identifiable; otherwise, the market resolves to 50-50
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 26 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If EDward Gaming wins the LPL 2026: EDward Gaming vs. ThunderTalk Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Jul 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If ThunderTalk Gaming wins the LPL 2026: EDward Gaming vs. ThunderTalk Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Jul 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 26 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to community-driven pricing and liquidity dynamics. While sportsbooks may set fixed odds based on their models, prediction markets let traders bet directly on outcomes, reflecting real-time sentiment and information flow. The spread between platforms can be as wide as 48.0, influenced by factors like trader positioning and recent team performance.
On Polymarket and Predict, prices can vary because each platform has its own user base, liquidity pool, and trading activity. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? at 99.0%, while Predict leans toward LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner at 51.0%. These differences arise from distinct trader behaviors, regional biases, and varying market depths across the venues.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on the official match results and any tie-breaking procedures used by the league, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement process for all participants.
Key signals that could shift this market include player injuries, coaching changes, recent performance metrics from practice matches, and commentary from analysts or team officials. Any unexpected developments — such as roster adjustments or strategic shifts — may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders reassess the probabilities leading up to Jul 30, 2026.
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