TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$177,903,386
24H TRANSACTIONS:
950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,049,845,057
824,617
Markets across
14,701
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 15d:01h:22m
Israeli forces enter Beirut by July 31?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Israeli ground forces will physically enter the municipality of Beirut for military operations. On Polymarket, the probability that Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30 stands at 8.0%, while the probability of entry by May 31 is 2.5%. Resolution will be determined by photo and video evidence or consensus credible reporting of troops on the ground within Beirut's municipality, excluding aerial, maritime, and undercover operations. Watch for developments leading up to the May 31 deadline, as any confirmed ground incursion by that date would trigger early resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations and real-money incentives, often diverging from traditional analyst consensus. While institutional analysts may rely on diplomatic channels, military assessments, and historical precedent, prediction markets incorporate breaking news and shifting probabilities in real time. The current market pricing reflects active trader positioning rather than a single analyst view, making it a dynamic alternative to static forecasts for tracking how informed participants assess the likelihood of Israeli forces entering Beirut by the resolution date.
On Polymarket, the Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30 outcome is priced at 1.5% probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no positions, with the price reflecting the collective assessment of whether Israeli military forces will enter Beirut by the deadline. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in the outcome occurring. Volume and bid-ask spreads on this contract show active participation, allowing traders to enter or exit positions based on their own geopolitical analysis and risk appetite.
The Israeli forces enter Beirut by market resolves on Jul 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Israeli military forces have physically entered Beirut by that deadline. The outcome is binary: either the condition is met or it is not. Traders should monitor official military announcements, credible news sources, and geopolitical developments leading up to the resolution date. Any ambiguity about what constitutes entry into Beirut may be clarified by the market's resolution criteria as the event approaches.
Key catalysts include escalations in Israeli-Hezbollah or Israeli-Lebanese military confrontations, diplomatic negotiations or ceasefire announcements, statements from Israeli government or military leadership regarding operational scope, and regional developments involving Iran, Syria, or international actors. Security incidents in northern Israel or southern Lebanon, UN or international pressure, and shifts in U.S. or European policy toward the conflict could all influence trader expectations. Market prices will likely spike on credible reports of military mobilization or official orders affecting Israeli forces' positioning near or within Lebanese territory.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.