TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Stephen Root
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 9:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks the winner of the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series award at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, scheduled for September 14, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets on this category, with Kalshi listing 13 potential nominees and Polymarket offering individual markets on 6 specific nominees.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve on the same underlying event—the official Emmy winner in this category—but Polymarket provides explicit tie-breaking and cancellation fallback rules while Kalshi does not address these edge cases.Primary resolution logic: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences official sources (theemmys.tv, televisionacademy.com) and live broadcast of the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards on September 14, 2026Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if the named nominee wins the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series award at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards
- Market resolves NO if any other nominee wins the award
- Resolution is based on official Academy announcement and live ceremony broadcast
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie between nominees: Polymarket explicitly resolves to the nominee first in alphabetical order. Kalshi does not specify a tie-breaking rule and may require manual intervention.
- No winner declared by deadline: Polymarket resolves to the nominee first in alphabetical order if no winner is declared by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not address this scenario.
- Award cancellation: Polymarket resolves to the nominee first in alphabetical order in case of overall cancellation. Kalshi does not address this scenario.
- Nominee scope mismatch: Kalshi lists 13 potential nominees including Ben Kingsley and Colman Domingo. Polymarket offers individual markets on only 6 nominees (Colman Domingo, Paul W. Downs, Harrison Ford, Nick Offerman, Stephen Root, Michael Urie, Tyler James Williams). Nominees not listed on Polymarket cannot be directly traded but are implicitly covered by the Kalshi YES resolution conditions.
Polymarket
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever actor wins the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series award at the 78th Emmy Awards, or if a tie is declared in that category.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of traders with real money at stake, often producing forecasts that differ from traditional pundit analysis. While entertainment analysts rely on critical reviews, industry buzz, and historical voting patterns, this market reflects live belief updates as new information emerges—award show campaigns, social media momentum, and voter sentiment shifts. Markets can move faster than published forecasts and sometimes contradict them, especially when traders spot signals analysts have overlooked. Comparing the two approaches offers a fuller picture of the race.
Key catalysts include major award show results (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA) that often predict Emmy outcomes, critical acclaim or backlash for nominated performances, and shifts in industry voting blocs. Campaign momentum—including interviews, social media endorsements, and voter outreach—can reshape odds quickly. Late-breaking news about nominees or competing shows may also influence trader positioning. Historically, the final weeks before the Emmys see sharp repricing as insiders and casual bettors adjust their forecasts based on accumulated signals.