TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$265,777,486
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,180,190,804
831,303
Markets across
15,095
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
966
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Closed: Jul 17, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Dogecoin will reach various price thresholds on July 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The price is determined by taking a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index immediately before the expiration time.
Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At the final moment before expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official settlement value.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs about future price movement and often diverge from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot price represents what DOGE trades for right now, this market embeds expectations about volatility, adoption trends, and macroeconomic shifts over the coming months. Traders who believe the consensus odds underestimate upside or downside risk can profit by taking the opposite position. Comparing implied probabilities in this market to your own outlook on Dogecoin's trajectory helps identify mispriced outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks across discrete price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can enter limit or market orders to establish positions, and the spread between bid and ask reflects the current uncertainty around the outcome. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, the order book adjusts, moving the mid-price and implied probabilities. This transparent, real-time pricing model allows participants to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, at which point the final Dogecoin price will be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the spot price of DOGE at that specific moment, confirmed once the event is observable from established financial data providers. Traders holding positions at resolution will be settled based on which outcome bracket the verified price falls into. Until that time, positions remain open and can be traded or adjusted.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency adoption, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and developments specific to the Dogecoin ecosystem such as network upgrades or merchant adoption milestones. Broader crypto market movements, Bitcoin price action, and shifts in institutional or retail sentiment toward meme coins can all influence trader positioning. Social media trends and celebrity or influencer commentary have historically moved DOGE prices significantly. Traders monitoring these signals can adjust positions ahead of anticipated moves or capitalize on sudden repricing.
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