TOTAL VOLUME:

$102.5b

24H VOL:

$159,397,476

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,043,702,062

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,256,098,739

203,224

Markets across

19,999

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,304

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

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Bitcoin above ___ on July 24?
⌛Ending SoonTrending
Crypto
kalshi
polymarket
opinion

Bitcoin above ___ on July 24?

Total volume:
$2,467,456
Volume 24h:
$1,558,006
273%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$248,172
103%
PredictionHero
$64,000 to 64,499.99 89%
kalshi
$63,500 to 63,999.99 9%
kalshi
$68,500 to 68,999.99 3%
kalshi
Jul 17Jul 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul 19Jul 19Jul 19Jul 20Jul 20Jul 20Jul 21Jul 21Jul 21Jul 22Jul 22Jul 22Jul 23Jul 23Jul 23Jul 24Jul 24Jul 24020406080100

Time left: 00h:52m:30s

Bitcoin price range on Jul 24, 2026?

89%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 92¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% | APY: N/A
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will fall within a specific range on July 24, 2026, at 5pm EDT, based on aggregated data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion. The current consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 83.0%, with a secondary outcome at 11.0%. Settlement will be determined by CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Watch the price movement leading up to the measurement window ending at 5pm EDT on July 24, 2026, as it will directly influence the resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms employ distinct price indices, measurement times, and resolution methodologies. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT at noon ET; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI at 5 PM EDT with band-based logic; Opinion provides no resolution criteria. A single Bitcoin price movement could produce different outcomes across platforms.Hero tip: Treat each platform's market as independent. Polymarket and Kalshi will almost certainly diverge because they measure at different times (5-hour gap) and use different indices. Kalshi's band structure means a price of $54,250 resolves YES for the $54k market, but Polymarket requires price strictly above $54,000. Monitor Binance and CF Benchmarks separately. Opinion markets lack defined resolution rules and should be considered incomplete or informational only.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Measures Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on July 24. Resolves YES if close price is strictly higher than the stated threshold (e.g., above $54,000 for the $54k market). Uses single-point-in-time measurement. Quote: 'Close price higher than the price specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Measures CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) as a 60-second simple average before 5:00 PM EDT on July 24. Resolves YES if the average falls within a specific price band (e.g., $54,000-$54,499.99 for market 9, or below $50,500 for market 1, or above $74,499.99 for market 50). Uses aggregated measurement and band-based logic rather than directional threshold. Quote: 'Simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index before 5 PM EDT is between [range].'
  • Opinion: Lists price thresholds ($54,000 through $74,000) with no explicit resolution criteria, data source, measurement time, or settlement methodology provided. Appears to be a placeholder or informational market without complete resolution rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) calculated immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 24, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome whose range contains the final average price. CF Benchmarks' BRTI is the authoritative price source, not alternative platforms like Google or Coinbase. At the final minute before expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are collected and averaged to produce the official and final value.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price level market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether Bitcoin will trade above a specific threshold by July 24, 2026. This market captures real-time consensus on near-term price momentum through combined volume of $2,467,456. Traders on both venues are pricing in their expectations for Bitcoin's spot price on that date, making the dashboard a cross-platform snapshot of how the crypto community views price direction over the coming months.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on a specific outcome, which often diverges from current spot prices. This market's odds represent a forward-looking consensus distinct from today's Bitcoin price—traders are betting on where the asset will settle by the resolution date, not where it trades now. Market-implied probabilities tend to embed risk premiums, volatility expectations, and longer-term sentiment that spot prices alone may not capture, making them a useful barometer of directional conviction among active participants.

This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once Bitcoin's price is verifiable from credible public reporting on that date. The resolution hinges on whether the spot price meets or exceeds the specified threshold at the designated time. Once the event occurs and data is published by major exchanges or financial data providers, the market settles based on the verified price level, and traders' positions are finalized accordingly.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory developments affecting crypto, and Bitcoin network upgrades or security events. Geopolitical tensions, corporate or institutional adoption news, and shifts in traditional market risk sentiment often drive Bitcoin price expectations. Technical breakouts or breakdowns on the spot market can also shift trader conviction, as can changes in on-chain metrics or mining difficulty. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate how this market may reprice ahead of the July 24 settlement.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.24.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.