TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index with multiple price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible resolution mechanics and different data sources. Polymarket is a binary directional market (close >= open on Binance XRP/USDT), while Kalshi offers 50 separate threshold-based markets against the CF Benchmarks index. These cannot be reconciled into a single unified outcome.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two distinct market families. Polymarket traders are betting direction; Kalshi traders are betting specific price levels. Binance spot price and CF Benchmarks index may diverge. Confirm your data source preference before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on whether XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 6, 2026. Data source: Binance XRP/USDT spot pair. Single outcome: Up or Down.Kalshi:
50 independent Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST exceeds a specific threshold (0.8999 to 1.8799). No unified binary outcome; each threshold is a separate market with its own resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.