TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate price-level thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different settlement mechanisms: Polymarket is a single binary up/down comparison on Binance spot prices, while Kalshi offers 40 separate threshold-based markets using CF Benchmarks RTI. The data sources, aggregation methods, and outcome structures are fundamentally incompatible.Hero Tip:
These are not equivalent markets. Polymarket resolves to a single binary outcome (Up or Down) based on Binance XRP/USDT candle close vs open. Kalshi offers 40 independent Yes/No markets tied to specific XRPUSD_RTI price levels. Price divergence between Binance and CF Benchmarks, or timing misalignment between the 1H candle and the 60-second RTI window, will cause these markets to resolve differently. Trade accordingly and do not hedge one against the other.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional market: resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle starting 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Uses Binance spot prices only. Single outcome per event. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 separate price-level markets: each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (0.8999, 0.9199, 0.9399, ... up to 1.6799). Uses independent benchmark index, not Binance. Multiple independent outcomes. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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